Federal electoral districts redistribution 2022

Comment 38 (29 August 2022) comments and feedback

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James McAllister

This submission contends that the federal electoral boundaries Commission for Manitoba has made a major error in its proposals for the Churchill-Keewatinook Aski district, an error which exacerbates problems with the existing boundaries. The Commission plans to increase the riding's population, but its sheer size and the remoteness of some communities currently makes effective representation in Ottawa problematic to the extreme and the Commission proposes to make these problems worse.

It is noted that in every province no electoral district is permitted to have a population smaller than 75 per cent of the quotient or greater than 125 per cent of the quotient, although in extraordinary circumstances a Commission may exceed these limits. Previous Commissions in Manitoba have slavishly attempted to reduce these variances to 95 per cent and 105 per cent and this has harmed the citizens of northern Manitoba. This five per cent variance may have been acceptable in Winnipeg or even southern Manitoba, but it is not acceptable in the sparsely populated north.

This submission argues that the right to vote, as guaranteed in Section 3 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, would be weakened by the acceptance of the Commission's proposals as they apply to northern Manitoba. In the Carter case before the Supreme Court of Canada, "the Court found that the right to vote in s.3 guaranteed not absolute equality of votes, but rather 'effective representation'. Indeed, McLachlin J. went as far as suggesting that strict equality may actually detract from effective representation because it prevents communities of interest from sharing a single representative."1

It is the argument of this submission that the southern boundary of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski should be altered such that this electoral district should not include any territory south of the 53rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N. The Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district is unique within Manitoba and should not be treated the same as other electoral districts in the province. As currently constituted, it includes more than three quarters of the land mass of Manitoba. This makes representation in Ottawa problematic to an extreme for anyone elected as an MP from this electoral district. The Commission is proposing to expand the boundaries of this one, northern Manitoba district, increase its population from 81,258 to 89,132 and have it include a land mass covering four fifths of the province.

These problems of representation are accentuated by the large Indigenous population in the Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district and the extra effort on the part of the federal government that should be extended to meet the needs of Indigenous peoples.

Representative Dividend

With the passage of Bill C-14, An Act to amend the Constitution Act, 1867 (electoral representation), the number of MPs elected to the House of Commons in the next federal election from the province of Quebec will remain at 78. This is referred to as the "new grandfather clause" and increases the number of MPs by five, to 343 MPs. It also reduces the "electoral quotient" for all provinces to 112,444 people from 121,891. Applying the new quotient to Manitoba's population estimates give Manitoba 12 MPs. However, the original grandfather clause provided that the number of members assigned to a province cannot be less than the number of members assigned to that province at the time the Representation Act, 1985 came into force.2

These legislative amendments gave, and continue to give, an additional two electoral districts to Manitoba. This means that Manitoba has 14 members of Parliament representing it in the House of Commons, two more than is provided for by its population. These two additional MPs and electoral districts will be referred to as Manitoba's "representative dividend".

The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Manitoba has chosen to spread that representative dividend around the province in a more or less equal manner. Every electoral district in Manitoba, including those in city and suburban seats in Winnipeg that are relatively easy to service by an MP, have proposed populations that are far below the national quotient. For example, the citizens of Winnipeg, who are to have eight MPs, would be represented by only six or seven MPs if they were located in some other province.

While Parliament decided that the grandfather clause should guarantee that Manitoba is represented by at least 14 MPs, it did not, however, decide that those two additional districts, Manitoba's representative dividend, should be appropriated by the City of Winnipeg. There is no discernible reason why someone living in Winnipeg should have more weight in electing an MP than someone living in Vancouver or Toronto.

Geography

The Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district, as currently constituted, included 81,258 people at the time of the 2021 census of Canada. As currently constituted, it includes 420,975 square miles of land mass, 77.9 per cent of the total land area of the entire province of Manitoba, 540,310 square miles. The electoral district extends as far north as Nunavut and Hudson Bay, as far west as Saskatchewan and as far east as the Ontario border and southeastern Manitoba, a hundred kilometres or so from Winnipeg.

In other words, any Member of Parliament elected to represent Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district must deal with issues that cover more than three quarters of the total territory of Manitoba, with less than one quarter of Manitoba being represented by the 13 other MPs.

In addition, a large percentage of the population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski is of Indigenous origin. The Commission has already recognized that any redistribution, in Manitoba, must involve protecting the constitutional rights of the Indigenous communities (sections 25 and 35 of the Charter). The electoral district's Indian Reserves, north of the 53rd parallel, are home to thousands of people and among the towns and cities of northern Manitoba Indigenous peoples are a majority of the population in Churchill, Leaf Rapids and Lynn Lake and a sizable share of the total in Flin Flon, Gillam, Snow Lake, The Pas and Thompson.

History

The Indigenous peoples living in what is now included in the Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district were among the first to come into contact with European explorers and settlers in the 17th century. The boundaries of the province were enlarged in 1881, but set the 53rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N. as the northern boundary of Manitoba. It was only in 1912 that the boundaries of Manitoba were changed to include northern Manitoba while the boundaries of Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba all were extended north to Hudson's Bay and the Hudson Strait. Manitoba's northern boundary was moved northward to the 60th parallel of latitude and northeastward to the shores of Hudson's Bay.3 This was follow-up to the creation of the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan in 1905 with northern boundaries of both provinces set at 60 degrees north.

The map on the previous page, shows the "two Manitobas" – one that includes all of Manitoba as existed before 1912, below the 53rd parallel, the other that also includes all of the area between the 53rd parallel and the 60th parallel. It has been referred to as "New Manitoba" although, as W.L. Morton has pointed out, from the point of view of explorers and settlers to Manitoba, "New Manitoba, which in a sense was the oldest Manitoba, was incorporated into the province on May 15, 1912, forty-two years after that May 12 which had seen the Manitoba Act become law."4

Precedents

The Commission points out that Section 15 (1) (b) (ii) of the federal Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act permits a variance from the provincial average to maintain "a manageable geographic size for ridings in sparsely populated, rural or northern regions of the province." The Commission then goes on to ignore this provision of the Act.

The Act also permits, in Section 15 (2) (b), the Commission to take into account "circumstances viewed by the Commission as being extraordinary" as just cause to increase the variance from one district to another by more than 25 per cent above or below the provincial quotient. The Manitoba Commission ignores this provision of the Act.

The Commission says that it recognizes that any redistribution must involve protecting the constitutional rights of the Indigenous communities and cites sections 25 and 35 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The Commission then proposes to make the problems of adequate representation worse for Indigenous peoples living in northern Manitoba.

Other Provinces and Territories

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski may be the most problematic of all the electoral districts under review by the Manitoba Commission. Such has not been the approach of Commissions in other provinces. As shown in the following table, federal Commissions have recognized the unique nature of their northern and remote regions.

The greatest deviations from the quota being proposed are found in Ontario, 68.8 per cent, Newfoundland and Labrador, 63.5 per cent, and Saskatchewan, 43.7 per cent. Note that Alberta separates its most northern and remote areas into three separate electoral districts, each of which include cities that are not particularly remote. None of the three Maritime provinces can truly be said to have any northern or remote areas in the same sense as Manitoba.

Proposed Electoral Districts in Other Jurisdictions
  Provincial Quotient Electoral Districts – Rural and Remote Proposed Populations Percentage Deviation from Quotient
Provinces
British Columbia 116,300 Skeena-Bulkley Valley 89,689 -22.9
Alberta 115,206 Fort McMurray-Cold Lake 110,779 -3.8
Saskatchewan 80,893 Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River 45,524 -43.7
Ontario 116,590 Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk 36,325 -68.8
Quebec 108,998 Manicouagan-Kawawachikamach-Uapishka 88,525 -18.8
New Brunswick 77,561 Miramichi-Grand Lake 59,725 -23.0
PEI 8,583 N/A N/A N/A
Nova Scotia 88,126 Sydney-Victoria 72,361 -17.9
Newfoundland and Labrador 72,936 Labrador 26,655 -63.5
Territories
Yukon 42,986 Yukon 42,986 0.0
Northwest Territories 45,504 Northwest Territories 45,504 0.0
Nunavut 39,403 Nunavut 39,403 0.0

In the neighbouring province of Saskatchewan, a similar, northern riding – Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River – has a population of 71,488, far less than the current boundaries for Churchill-Keewatinook Aski in Manitoba. The provinces's current Commission has indicated "that a substantial variation from the electoral quota is potentially justified" and has proposed their northern district be reduced to 45,524 people – just over half as many people as who live in the within the boundaries proposed for Manitoba's most northerly district.

In the neighbouring province of Ontario, the previous federal Commission in 2012 concluded that, instead of giving northern Ontario eight ridings, as the region's population would dictate, "given the vast region, the Commission believes that a minimum of 10 electoral districts is required in order for citizens of Northern Ontario to have effective representation." (page 10 of the Ontario Proposal in 2012). In Ontario the previous federal Commission concluded that there were reasonable grounds to apply the extraordinary circumstances provision of the Act.

More specifically, in the northern Ontario riding of Kenora, "it is the Commission's decision that, given the geographic size and relatively sparse population of the electoral district of Kenora, there are reasonable grounds to apply the extraordinary circumstances provision of the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act to that electoral district." (page 11 of the 2012 Proposal). The Ontario Commission proposed that the riding of Kenora have a population below the provincial average and it has a current population of 64,261, according to the 2021 census.

The current Commission for Ontario has proposed a northern district, Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk, to have a population of 36,325 people, 68.8 per cent below the quotient for Ontario.

In yet another example, the Commission for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador has proposed that the boundaries of the district of Labrador, which is separated from the rest of the province by the Strait of Belle Isle, should continue as in the past, which will give it a population of 26,655, far below the provincial quotient.

In another of the smaller provinces, the Commission for New Brunswick provided for smaller populations for the provinces' more sparsely populated northern districts. Madawaska-Restigouche is to have 71,099 residents, Tobique-Mactaquac 64,664 residents, and Miramichi-Grand Lake 59,725. In contrast, the largely urban district of Moncton-Dieppe is to have 91,333 residents.

And finally, it should be noted that each of the northern Canadian territories has a population that is a fraction of the total population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. The population of the Yukon, 40,232, the Northwest territories, 41,070, and Nunavut, 36,858, each are far below that of the present Churchill-Keewatinook Aski district. In fact, the population of any two of the territories is about the same as that of Manitoba's most northern riding.

In summation, several other provinces' Commissions, including Commissions in BC, Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador, have shown some sensitivity to the representative requirements of northern and remote parts of their respective provinces. The Manitoba Commission has not done so.

Impact on other electoral districts

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski borders on three other electoral districts within Manitoba, as well as electoral districts in Ontario, Saskatchewan and Nunavut. No other electoral district in Manitoba, as currently constituted, borders on two provinces or a territory.

If the recommendations of this submission were accepted the impact on the current Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa electoral district will be negligible. Its northern boundary is already the 53rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N. This would not change with the implementation of these proposals, but would require the Commission's proposals for this district to be reviewed.

The impact on Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman would be more significant with its northern boundary becoming the 53rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N, at least on the west side of Lake Winnipeg. This would require the Commission's proposals for this district to be reviewed.

The Commission also may wish to alter the boundaries of Provencher electoral district, perhaps to include all of the territory on the east side of Lake Winnipeg south of the 53rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N. There is historical precedent for this change. Again, this would require the Commission's proposals for this district to be reviewed.

Conclusion

In summary, the Commission is urged to recognize the extraordinary circumstances of the North and reduce the geographic size and population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. Our preference would be to use the 53°00'N parallel as the southern border of the electoral district.

If the Commission does not recognize the extraordinary circumstances of northern Manitoba and does not see fit to recognize the geographic and historic precedents as well as those set by other provinces, it would be reasonable to recommend that Churchill-Keewatinook Aski's area and population be reduced – not increased - so as to take it well below the provincial quota. The Appendix which follows presents a simulation of what would happen to districts across Manitoba if the population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski is reduced significantly.

With Manitoba's population of 1,342,153 as of the most recent census spread among 14 electoral districts, the average riding should have a population of roughly 95,868 people. The population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski should most certainly not exceed 75 per cent of the provincial quotient - 74,130 people, significantly less than at present.

Unfortunately, this would still not meet the extraordinary circumstances clause of the legislation. "Following the Carter decision, it can be said with some confidence that the +/- 25% variance permitted by the federal and most provincial legislation is within the bounds of s. 3. Furthermore variance greater than +/- 25% is still permissible where the Commission can show that a group would not otherwise be effectively represented. This exception is most notable in northern districts, where a strict equality requirement would make northern representation negligible or non-existence."5 This author goes on to point out that "Canadian courts, while greatly deferential to the districts drawn by the reapportionment Commissions, are thus willing to step in when a map is grossly unfair."6

Apendix - Simulation

To demonstrate the significance of reducing the population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski a simulation was performed using the Commission's data and proposals. An arbitrary population was assigned to Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, 50,000 people, and the remainder of the province's population was assigned to one or other of Manitoba's other 13 districts, the province's southern Manitoba districts.

This number, 50,000 may seem low, compared with the province's quotient, but it is no lower than the populations proposed for many northern or remote districts. Saskatchewan, Ontario, two of the Atlantic provinces, and all three territories are proposed to have or are to have districts with populations of less than 50,000 people.

Assigning this arbitrary number, 50,000, to Churchill-Keewatinook Aski requires a separate quotient for southern Manitoba and in this simulation would increase that quotient for the rest of the province to 99,396 people in each district. This is more than the Commission is proposing for all but two of the districts across the province. Portage-Lisgar and Winnipeg South Centre are already proposed to exceed this quotient, but it would be necessary to increase the geographic footprint and population of the remaining 11 districts.

This raises another matter though: the over-representation of Winnipeg. Currently, Winnipeg has eight MPs and the Commission proposes to maintain that number of MPs. Applying the separate quotient for southern Manitoba means that Winnipeg would need almost 20,000 more residents to justify eight MPs. The City of Winnipeg, as of the 2021 census, includes 749,607 residents while the eight proposed Winnipeg districts include a combined population of 775,881 residents. In other words, about 26,174 people live in one of the proposed eight Winnipeg districts but do not live in the City of Winnipeg.

Extending several of the Winnipeg districts outside of the perimeter highway and creating more urban-rural districts may be a necessity. The Commission is already intending to do this by proposing that Elmwood-Transcona, Kildonan-St. Paul and Winnipeg West are to include significant areas outside of the City of Winnipeg. They are to be mixed, urban-rural districts and additional rural areas could be included within their boundaries. Another likely candidate is Winnipeg South, which already includes a large area south of the perimeter highway.

Proposed Electoral Districts in Manitoba – A Simulation
Electoral Districts – Rural and Remote Proposed Populations Simulation Simulation Minus Proposals
Brandon Souris 90,805 99,396 8,591
Churchill-Keewatinook Aski 89,132 50,000 -39,132
Dauphin-Swan River 90,662 99,396 8,734
Portage-Lisgar 100,441 99,396 -1,044
Provencher 97,650 99,396 1,746
Selkirk Interlake 97,682 99,396 1,714
Sub-total 566,372 546,981 -19,390
Electoral Districts - Winnipeg
Elmwood-Transcona 98,324 99,396 1,072
Kildonan St. Paul 93,321 99,396 6,075
St. Boniface 98,751 99,396 645
Winnipeg Centre 96,951 99,396 2,445
Winnipeg North 95,082 99,396 4,314
Winnipeg South 95,515 99,396 3,881
Winnipeg South Centre 100,160 99,396 -763
Winnipeg West 97,677 99,396 1,719
Sub-total 775,781 795,171 19,390
Total 1,342,153 1,342,153 0
Average 95,868 95,868 0

Footnotes

 1 Charles Paul Hoffman. "The Gerrrymander and the Commission: Drawing Electoral Districts in the United States and Canada" Manitoba Law Journal, Vol. 31, No. 2, p. 351.

 2 Canada. Representation Act, 1985, S.C. 1986, c.8.

 3 Canada. Manitoba Boundaries Extension Act, 1912.

 4 W.L. Morton. Manitoba: A History (Second Edition), University of Toronto Press, 1967. P. 327.

 5 Hoffman, p. 352.

 6 Ibid., p. 352.

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