Comment 43 (6 September 2022) – comments and feedback

Vaibhav Varma

Presentation to the Manitoba Commission for the Federal Electoral District Redistribution process

Background

The Winnipeg South Conservative Association ("WSCA") is the official electoral district association (EDA) of Winnipeg South. Our website can be found here: https://www.wpgsouthconservative.ca/

The WSCA represents more than 1,600 members of the Conservative Party in Winnipeg South. The WSCA studied the proposed changes to the federal election districts and decided to make this presentation to the commission.

In attendance at today's consultation are two members of the Association's Board of Directors: Vaibhav Varma (Presenter) and Bob Foster (Observer).

Guiding Principles in Manitoba

The WSCA interprets that the following have been set out by the Manitoba Commission as its guiding principles:

1. Voter parity. This is the central principle, in which EDA boundaries should generally try to distribute the population evenly. All recent prior re-distributions (1992; 2002; 2012) have used a tolerance of +/- 5% of the provincial average population per EDA.
2. Growth projections. Works with principle #1, in looking not only at current population levels but also projected growth or decline in each EDA.
3. Keeping communities together. Communities (a term which is not explicitly defined) are to be kept together as much as possible. Examples given are typically along cultural lines or geographic lines, but also can include other factors such as transportation,education, etc.

Proposed Boundary Changes to Winnipeg South

The three primary changes for Winnipeg South appear as follows:

• Whyte Ridge and Linden Ridge move to Winnipeg South Centre
• The Bridgwater Lakes (north of the proposed Bison Drive extension) moves to Winnipeg
• A section of St. Vital south of Bishop Grandin Blvd East of River Road until St. Mary's Road moves to St. Boniface – St. Vital.

Rationale for Boundary Changes to Winnipeg South

Representatives of WSCA spoke with the Manitoba Commission, to determine the rationale for the aforementioned changes. The Commission advised of the following considerations that led to the re-drawn boundaries and provided census citations to support their conclusions.

• Average population per federal constituency is currently around 96,000. Projected growth, based on the last 5 censuses, indicates this average will rise to 104,000 over the next 10 years.
• The current population of Winnipeg South is almost exactly at the provincial average, and Winnipeg South Centre is only slightly higher. However, the growth rates between the two constituencies greatly differ. Over the next several years, Winnipeg South is projected to increase in population (approx. +5%) which is greater than the projected growth in Winnipeg South Centre (little to no growth). The re-drawn boundaries account for this anticipated change.

Policy Committee Analysis

• In general, WSCA recognizes that Winnipeg South is a growing area in the city, and boundaries may need to shift to account for current and future growth.
• The proposed boundaries appear to follow major geographic lines overall. Other choices, such as moving the central northern boundary further south on Pembina Hwy, would not capture any notable number of people.
• The proposed splitting of Bridgwater does not seem appropriate. Bridgwater Lakes, which is proposed to be moved to Winnipeg South Centre, is well integrated within the neighbourhood of Bridgwater. The neighbourhoods of Bridgwater include Bridgwater Forest, Bridgwater Trails, and Bridgwater Lakes, which all share a common retail and community area known as Bridgwater Centre. These neighbourhoods collectively share major roadways, walking trails, playgrounds, retail centres, and there is no distinction between the different neighbourhoods. Additionally, the new boundary cuts Bridgwater Centre completely in half.

WSCA recommends that the line be re-drawn to keep the Neighbourhoods of Bridgwater together. Specifically, the northern boundary in this area should be the hydro line that separates Bridgwater from Whyte Ridge. This follows the criteria set out by the Manitoba Commission; Criteria #3 Keeping Communities Together.

Please refer to the detailed maps on the following page.

Map of Winnipeg South

The area in blue comprises the entirety of the Neighbourhoods of Bridgwater. The red dotted line is the WSCA's suggestion of where the boundary should be.

Map of Bridgwater

This illustrates the various neighbourhoods that comprise the Neighbourhoods of Bridgwater. The red dotted line is the WSCA's suggestion of where the boundary should be.