Comment 24 (27 June 2022) – comments and feedback

Adam Pottle

Subject: New Brunswick Federal Boundary Redistribution

Hello Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission,

I would like to share my proposal for New Brunswick's electoral boundaries. Please see the attached file.

No city, town, village, or parish is split. As my software does not yet include the new government entities, I have attempted to replicate them where needed using the shapefiles available.

All districts are between -9.3% and +5.4% of the ideal district size, a dramatic improvement over the current and proposed maps.

Various New Brunswick news organizations are copied for visibility, as I feel this map is a better start for community input than the official proposal. It is more democratic, as population variances are much lower, and favours geographic and administrative boundaries and compactness over maintaining the influence of one language over the other.

For example, Northumberland and Kent Counties form a seat within 0.5% of the ideal seat, share similar economic structures and broadly rural natures, and have a transportation network in common. Instead of extending Beausejour to suburban Moncton and the Nova Scotia border, and Miramichi deep inland to Grand Lake, the two should form one seat, blending their old names: Miramichi–Beausejour.

Conversely, the traditionally French-majority seats of Acadie–Bathurst and Madawaska–Restigouche needed only minor changes.

Tobique–Mactaquac extends south and east and is renamed Tobique–York to accommodate its expansion. Similarly, New Brunswick Southwest shifts slightly and is renamed Kennebecasis–St. Croix.

Saint John and Fredericton–Oromocto, with some minor outlying areas added, also form compact seats. Notably, Moncton forms a seat of its own perfectly.

Fundy Royal acquires Riverview, along with the Grand Lake area, being renamed Fundy Royal–Grand Lake. I had considered including Riverview in the name, but half of Riverview is already in the riding, and the name Fundy Royal is set in stone.

Lastly, a seat consisting of Westmoreland County from Berry Mills east is 'born' from the southern portions of Beausejour and the City of Dieppe, named Westmoreland–Dieppe.

Thank you for reviewing the attached document.

Adam Pottle

New Brunswick Federal Boundary Redistribution

I have attempted to hew to traditional and new political boundaries and to maintain a population variance of +/- 10%. Existing district shapes have been maintained where possible, taking this into account.

All districts have a population variance between -9.3% and +5.4%.

Figure 1: New Brunswick

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the entire Province of New Brunswick broken down into 10 proposed federal electoral districts.

Saint John

• Consisting of the City of Saint John and Simonds Parish in Saint John County
• 70,386 residents
• -9.3% from ideal population

Figure 2: Saint John

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Saint John.

Moncton

• Consisting of the entirety of the city of Moncton in Westmoreland County
• 79,470 residents
• +2.5% from ideal population

Figure 3: Moncton

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Moncton.

Fredericton–Oromocto

• Consisting of the entirety of the City of Fredericton and Saint Mary's First Nation in York County;
• And the Town of Oromocto and Lincoln Parish in Sunbury County
• 81,045 residents
• +4.5% from ideal population

Figure 4: Fredericton–Oromocto

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Fredericton–Oromocto.

Acadie–Bathurst

• Consisting of the entirety of Gloucester County;
• And the town of Beresford, the villages of Pointe-Verte, Petit-Rocher, and Nigadoo, and the portion of Beresford Parish east of Route 11 in Restigouche County
• 77,655 residents
• +0.1% from ideal population

Figure 5: Acadie–Bathurst

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Acadie–Bathurst.

Madawaska–Restigouche

• Consisting of the entirety of Madawaska County;
• And the town of Grand Falls and the parish of Drummond in Victoria County;
• And all of Restigouche County excluding the town of Beresford, the villages of Pointe-Verte, Petit-Rocher, and Nigadoo, and the portion of Beresford Parish east of Route 11
• 75,370 residents
• -2.8% from ideal population

Figure 6: Madawaska–Restigouche

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Madawaska–Restigouche.

Tobique–York

• Consisting of the entirety of Carleton County;
• And all of Victoria County excluding town of Grand Falls and the Drummond Parish;
• And all of York County excluding the City of Fredericton and Saint Mary's First Nation
• 75,706 residents
• -2.4% from ideal population

Figure 7: Tobique–York

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Tobique–York.

Miramichi–Beausejour

• Consisting of the entirety of Kent County;
• And the entirety of Northumberland County
• 77,174 residents
• -0.5% from ideal population

Figure 8: Miramichi–Beausejour

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Miramichi–Beausejour.

Dieppe–Westmoreland

• Consisting of all of Westmoreland County excluding the City of Moncton, the villages of Salisbury and Petitcodiac, and Salisbury Parish
• 76,866 residents
• -0.9% from ideal population

Figure 9: Dieppe–Westmoreland

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Dieppe–Westmoreland.

Fundy Royal–Grand Lake

• Consisting of the entirety of Albert County;
• The town of Sussex, the villages of Norton and Sussex Corner, and Havelock, Waterford, Cardwell, Upham, Hammond, Sussex, Studholm, and Springfield Parishes in Kings County;
• The villages of Salisbury and Petitcodiac, and Salisbury Parish in Westmoreland County;
• The village of St. Martins and St. Martins Parish in Saint John County;
• All of Queens County excluding the Petersville Parish;
• And the village of Minto, and Maugerville, Burton, Norfield, and Sheffield Parishes in Sunbury County
• 78,186 residents
• +0.8% from ideal population

Figure 10: Fundy Royal–Grand Lake

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Fundy Royal–Grand Lake.

Kennebecasis–St. Croix

• Consisting of the entirety of Charlotte County;
• Musquash Parish in Saint John County;
• Petersville Parish in Queens County;
• The villages of Fredericton Junction and Tracy, and Gladstone and Blissville Parishes in Sunbury County;
• And the towns of Quispamsis, Hampton, and Rothesay; the village of Grand Bay; Norton, Hampton, Rothesay, Greenwich, Westfield, and Kingston Parishes
• 81,755 residents
• +5.4% from ideal population

Figure 11: Kennebecasis–St. Croix

Image description provided by Elections Canada: This map shows the proposed federal electoral district of Kennebecasis–St. Croix.

PowerPoint Presentation made by Adam Pottle at the public hearing in Rothesay on 22 September 2022 (sent on 14 September 2022)

2022 Federal Boundary Redistribution : New Brunswick Proposal

Goals

• Keep all variances within 10% of the ideal/average district size
• Follow municipal and traditional boundaries where possible
• Avoid splitting Communities of Interest as much as possible while abiding by 1 and 2

Results

• Keep all variances within 10% of the ideal/average district size
• All ridings have a variance between -9.3% and +5.4%
• Follow municipal and traditional boundaries where possible
• Only Beresford Parish is split (between Madawaska-Restigouche and Acadie-Bathurst)
• Avoid splitting Communities of Interest as much as possible while abiding by 1 and 2
• Generally successful

Image shows the proposed federal electoral districts for New Brunswick.

Madawaska – Restigouche

• Madawaska County
• Restigouche County excluding Beresford, Pointe-Verte, Petit-Rocher, and Nigadoo, and the portion of Beresford Parish east of Route 11
• Grand Falls and Drummond in Victoria County
• -2.8% from ideal pop (75,370)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Madawaska – Restigouche.

Acadie – Bathurst

• Gloucester County
• Beresford, Pointe-Verte, Petit-Rocher, and Nigadoo, and the portion of Beresford Parish east of Route 11, in Restigouche County
• +0.1% from ideal pop (77,655)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Acadie – Bathurst.

Northumberland – Kent

• Northumberland County
• Kent County
• -0.5% from ideal pop (77,174)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Northumberland – Kent.

Dieppe – Westmoreland

• Westmoreland County excluding the City of Moncton, the villages of Salisbury and Petitcodiac, and Salisbury Parish
• -0.9% from ideal pop (76,866)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Dieppe – Westmoreland.

Moncton

• The City of Moncton in Westmoreland County
• +2.5% from ideal pop (79,470)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Moncton.

Fundy Royal

• Albert County
• Queens County (excluding Petersville)
• Petitcodiac and Salisbury+Parish in Westmoreland County
• St. Martins Parish in Saint John County
• Minto, Maugerville, Burton, Norfield, and Sheffield in Sunbury County
• Sussex, Norton, Sussex Corner, and Havelock, Waterford, Cardwell, Upham, Hammond, Sussex, Studholm, and Springfield Parishes in Kings County;
• +0,8% from ideal pop (78,168)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Fundy Royal.

Saint John

• The City of Saint John and Simonds Parish in Saint John County
• -9.3% from ideal pop (70,386)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Saint John.

New Brunswick Southwest

• Charlotte County
• Petersville in Queens County
• Musquash in Saint John County
• Fredericton Junction, Tracy, Blissville, and Gladstone in Sunbury County
• Quispamsis, Hampton, Rothesay, Grand Bay, Norton, Greenwich, Westfield, and Kingston in Kings County;
• +5.4% from ideal pop (81,755)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of New Brunswick Southwest.

Fredericton – Oromocto

• The City of Fredericton and St. Mary's Reserve in York County
• The Town of Oromocto and Lincoln Parish in Sunbury County
• +4.5% from ideal pop (81,045)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Fredericton – Oromocto.

Tobique – York

• Carleton County
• Victoria County excluding Grand Falls and Drummond
• York County excluding Fredericton and St, Mary's Reserve
• -2.4% from ideal pop (75,706)

Image shows the proposed electoral district of Tobique – York.