The Proposal – Nova Scotia
The Commission received the 2021 decennial population figures on February 9, 2022, and immediately began its review, guided by the above principles. As a preliminary matter, the Commission considered whether there were any "extraordinary circumstances" that might require or justify any of the 11 electoral districts falling outside of the plus or minus 25% range. The Commission determined there were no extraordinary circumstances, and, as a result, all ridings in the province are required to have a population no lower than 66,095 people and no higher than 110,158.
The Commission began its review by considering the population in each of the 11 electoral districts following the last redistribution in 2012 and comparing it to the population as shown in the 2021 decennial census. A table was created to show the change in population as well as the variation from the electoral quota for the 11 ridings. It was included in the Commission's Proposal published in the Canada Gazette and on the Commission's website (redistribution2022.ca) and is reproduced below:
| Electoral District Name | After Redistribution 2012 (Electoral Quotient 83,793) | Prior to Redistribution 2022 (Electoral Quotient 88,126) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 Population | 2011 Variation | 2021 Population | 2021 Variation | |
| Cape Breton—Canso | 75,247 | -10.20% | 71,380 | -19.00% |
| Central Nova | 74,597 | -10.98% | 73,188 | -16.95% |
| Cumberland—Colchester | 82,321 | -1.76% | 82,014 | -6.94% |
| Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | 91,212 | +8.85% | 96,165 | +9.12% |
| Halifax | 92,643 | +10.56% | 107,010 | +21.43% |
| Halifax West | 87,275 | +4.16% | 111,944 | +27.03% |
| Kings—Hants | 83,306 | -0.58% | 87,744 | -0.43% |
| Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook | 85,583 | +2.14% | 89,524 | +1.59% |
| South Shore—St. Margarets | 92,561 | +10.46% | 94,482 | +7.21% |
| Sydney—Victoria | 73,328 | -12.49% | 72,361 | -17.89% |
| West Nova | 83,654 | -0.17% | 83,571 | -5.17% |
| Total | 921,727 | 969,383 | ||
Having considered the population changes, the Commission was of the view that existing electoral boundaries required alteration. The Commission observed that:
- The province recorded a population increase of 47,656 since the 2011 decennial census.
- There was a significant increase in population in urban Halifax and its outlying areas. The riding of Halifax increased in population by 14,367 in the last decade, and Halifax West accounted for over 50% of the province's growth, with an increase in population of 24,669.
- Although other rural constituencies showed smaller decreases in population, Cape Breton—Canso (a decrease of 3,867), Central Nova (a decrease of 1,409) and Sydney—Victoria (a decrease of 967) have shown the greatest decreases.
- One electoral district, Halifax West, exceeded the permissible 25% variance (+27.03%). In addition, several other ridings, based on the new population data, had variances approaching the upward limit.
The Commission undertook a process of reconsidering all the existing boundaries, with the aim of bringing most of the 11 ridings within a closer population range. This resulted in several significant shifts in the existing boundaries. The details were published in the Commission's Proposal, with the resulting population variances included in Table 2 of that document. It should be noted that, in addition to changes to the geographical boundaries, several name changes were proposed.
| Electoral District Name | After Redistribution in 2022 (Electoral Quota 88,126) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 Population | Variation | |
| Acadian Shore—Shelburne | 89,956 | +2.08% |
| Cape Breton—Antigonish | 84,999 | -3.55% |
| Cumberland—Colchester | 82,014 | -6.94% |
| Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | 93,622 | +6.24% |
| Halifax | 97,243 | +10.35% |
| Halifax West | 90,917 | +3.17% |
| Kings—Hants | 87,409 | -0.81% |
| Pictou—Eastern Shore—Preston | 88,398 | +0.31% |
| Shubenacadie—Bedford Basin | 91,176 | +3.46% |
| South Shore—St. Margarets | 91,288 | +3.59% |
| Sydney—Victoria | 72,361 | -17.89% |
| Total | 969,383 | |