Federal electoral districts redistribution 2022

Proposed Boundaries

For the remainder of this report proposing a new electoral boundaries regime for the province, the Commission will first address the population shifts on the island and propose changes to the existing boundaries. It will, at this stage, use the current district names for ease of reference. After addressing the boundaries, the proposed names of each district will be discussed.

Before addressing the changes in boundaries, it is useful to note the current population of each district to determine the extent of the changes necessary to ensure that adherence to the quota is maintained. The following chart shows the results of the 2021 census, as reported by Statistics Canada, for the existing districts.

Federal Electoral Districts 2012 Population 2021 2021 Deviation from Provincial Quota
Avalon87,19119.55%
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity71,898−1.42%
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame74,2011.73%
Labrador26,655−63.45%
Long Range Mountains81,71612.04%
St. John's East87,34519.76%
St. John's South—Mount Pearl81,54411.80%
Total Population510,550 
Provincial Riding Average72,936 

These numbers demonstrate that adjustments are required in several districts to bring their populations as close as possible to the provincial quota. Given the discussion above, the Commission will use the reference quota for the island districts but will ensure that deviation from the provincial quota remains within the limits set by the Act. Starting with the census numbers for the existing districts, the Commission has adjusted the boundaries as part of this proposal.

Avalon

In the Avalon district, the 2021 census showed an increase of 6.93 percent from 2011. Based on the first principle of staying close to the quota, this district is one that should decrease in geographic size in order to accommodate population growth.

The Commission decided to propose three changes to its boundaries to bring the population closer to the reference quota. First, under the previous redistribution, the Town of Paradise had been divided between the districts of Avalon and St. John's East. The Commission decided to draw the boundary so that the entire town was in the district of Avalon, rather than dividing the town across districts. That change would have the effect of increasing the population of the district and thereby having a greater deviation from the provincial quota. However, the benefit to the municipality of not being divided would, in the view of the Commission, be significant.

Second, the communities in Conception Bay North from Spaniard's Bay to Victoria should move to the adjacent district of Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, and the boundary of Avalon should be drawn north of Bay Roberts. This change would bring the population closer to the provincial quota. It would have the effect of placing communities in the Conception Bay North area in separate districts, but it would not divide municipalities. The Commission is proposing that the new boundary follow the municipal boundary between the towns of Spaniard's Bay and Bay Roberts. The former would move to the district of Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, with the latter remaining in the district of Avalon.

Third, while there is only a very small population in the area of St. John's west of the Trans-Canada Highway, the Commission proposes that the boundary in this area follow the highway. This means that all the area west of the highway in the vicinity of Paradise and Conception Bay South would be in the district of Avalon.

These three changes would reduce the population of Avalon to 79,745. It would deviate from the reference quota by −1.12 percent and from the provincial quota by 9.34 percent.

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity

This district recorded a decrease of 6.27 percent in its population since the 2011 census. This decline in population leads the Commission to propose an increase in the geographic area of the district to bring it closer to the reference quota.

The Commission has already proposed that several communities in Conception Bay North should be included in this district and taken out of the district of Avalon. In addition, it is proposing a significant shift in the boundary in the Bonavista North area. The boundary would now move all the communities along Routes 320 and 330 in the northern part of the district, generally from Carmanville to Centreville-Wareham-Trinity, into the adjacent district of Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame. The communities of Gambo, Hare Bay and Dover would remain in this district.

This change would place the communities from Carmanville to Centreville-Wareham-Trinity within their natural community of interest. Most of the services for this region would be found in the Town of Gander.

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity would then have a population of 78,741. It would deviate from the reference quota by −2.37 percent and from the provincial quota by 7.96 percent.

Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame

This district recorded a decline in population of 4.98 percent from 2011. This decline in population leads the Commission to propose an increase in geographic area to bring this district closer to the quota.

Besides the change occasioned by the proposal to move the area in Bonavista North to this district, the Commission also proposes a small change in the White Bay region. We propose to move the communities of Galeville, Georges Cove and The Beaches out of the Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame district into Long Range Mountains.

These changes result in a population for Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame of 81,567. This number will deviate from the reference quota by 1.14 percent and from the provincial quota by 11.83 percent.

Labrador

This district recorded a decline in population of 0.27 percent from that recorded in 2011. Normally, a decline in population would lead to an increase in geographic area to bring the district closer to the quota. However, based on our discussion earlier, the Commission is of the view that extraordinary circumstances exist in the case of Labrador and that a significant deviation from the provincial quota is warranted. No change is being recommended to the boundaries of this district.

Thus, with a population of 26,655, Labrador will deviate from the provincial quota by −63.45 percent. This compares with a deviation of −63.6 percent in the report of the 2012 Commission.

Long Range Mountains

This district recorded a decline in population of 6.71 percent from the 2011 census. This would normally result in a proposal to increase its geographic area to bring it closer to the provincial quota.

Even with the decline, the population in the district of Long Range Mountains remains close to both the provincial and the reference quotas, in line with other districts. Its 2021 population of 81,716 represents a deviation from the reference quota of only 1.32 percent. The deviation from the provincial quota is 12.04 percent. In both cases, the deviation is in line with other districts.

However, when the Commission reviewed the existing boundary of this district, it found an anomalous situation in the area of White Bay. While the town of Hampden is within the district, the adjacent communities of Galeville, Georges Cove and The Beaches are not. They are connected by road to Hampden, but are situated within the neighbouring district of Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame. Thus, the boundary has been redrawn so that these small communities are located within the district to which they are most connected. The impact on the overall population is minimal.

This change results in a population for Long Range Mountains of 81,795. It will deviate from the reference quota by 1.42 percent and from the provincial quota by 12.15 percent.

St. John's East

This district recorded an increase in population of 6.6 percent from the 2011 census. This would justify a proposal to reduce its geographic area to bring it closer to the provincial quota.

Previously, the Town of Paradise was divided between the districts of Avalon and St. John's East. The Commission proposes that the entire municipality of Paradise should be within the district of Avalon and that the district of St. John's East no longer contain any portion of the town of Paradise.

In addition, the Commission proposes that the boundary between St. John's East and St. John's South—Mount Pearl be redrawn so that the areas on both sides of St. John's Harbour will be within St. John's East. This change satisfies the objective of maintaining a community of interest around the harbour, an issue raised by the public in the 2012 Boundary Commission hearings.

These changes result in a population for St. John's East of 80,874. It will deviate from the reference quota by 0.28 percent and the provincial quota by 10.88 percent.

St. John's South—Mount Pearl

This district recorded a small decrease in its population of 0.49 percent from the 2011 census. This is almost insignificant, and the Commission did not propose any major change to the boundaries of this district.

There is a very small population in the old district of St John's South—Mount Pearl that can be found west of the Trans-Canada Highway, and the Commission proposes that the boundary in this area follow the highway.

The Commission did view the area around St. John's Harbour as being akin to a community of interest. It proposes that the boundary should be redrawn to include this area in the district of St. John's East, moving it from St. John's South—Mount Pearl.

This change results in a population for St. John's South—Mount Pearl of 81,173. It will deviate from the reference quota by 0.65 percent and from the provincial quota by 11.29 percent.

Summary

The Commission is proposing boundary changes that will respond to the changes in population since the census of 2011. In so doing, the population of each of the island districts has been maintained within 5 percent of the reference quota. The result also ensures that all the island districts are close to a deviation of 10 percent from the provincial quota. The table below summarizes the results that form the basis of the Commission's proposal.

Federal Electoral Districts 2012 2021 Population Deviation from Provincial Quota Deviation from Reference Quota
Avalon79,7459.34%−1.12%
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity78,7417.96%−2.37%
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame81,56711.83%1.14%
Labrador26,655−63.45%−66.95%
Long Range Mountains81,79512.15%1.42%
St. John's East80,87410.88%0.28%
St. John's South—Mount Pearl81,17311.29%0.65%

It is evident that keeping the current boundaries of Labrador has an impact on the other districts. However, for the reasons outlined above, the Commission proposes that Labrador remain a separate district. The resulting variance from the provincial quota is in line with the legislative direction and compares favourably with representation in other parts of Canada. We would note that when the population of the districts on the island is considered, the variance from what we have called the reference quota is very small. It meets the goal set by the Commission of having a variance of less than 5 percent for the island districts.