Changes to Boundaries – Newfoundland and Labrador
For the remainder of this report setting out a new electoral boundaries regime for the province, the Commission will first address the population shifts on the island and then outline any changes to boundaries arising from its proposal, including as it was amended following consideration of the feedback in the public consultations. The Commission will, at this stage, use the current district names for ease of reference. After addressing the boundaries, the new names of each district will be discussed.
Before addressing the changes in boundaries, it is useful to note the current population of each district to determine the extent of the changes necessary to ensure that adherence to the quota is maintained. The following table shows the population breakdown, as reported by Statistics Canada in the 2021 Census, for the existing districts.
| Federal Electoral Districts 2012 | Population 2021 | 2021 Deviation from Provincial Quota |
|---|---|---|
| Avalon | 87,191 | 19.55% |
| Bonavista—Burin—Trinity | 71,898 | −1.42% |
| Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame | 74,201 | 1.73% |
| Labrador | 26,655 | −63.45% |
| Long Range Mountains | 81,716 | 12.04% |
| St. John's East | 87,345 | 19.76% |
| St. John's South—Mount Pearl | 81,544 | 11.80% |
| Total Population | 510,550 | |
| Provincial Riding Average | 72,936 |
These numbers demonstrate that adjustments are required in several districts to bring their populations closer to the provincial quota. Given the discussion above, the Commission will use the reference quota for the island districts but will ensure that deviation from the provincial quota remains within the limits set by the Act. Starting with the census numbers for the existing districts, the Commission has made changes to the existing boundaries based on population changes and the public feedback received.
Avalon
In the Avalon district, the 2021 census showed an increase of 6.93% from 2011. Based on the first principle of staying close to the quota, this district is one that should decrease in geographical size in order to accommodate population growth.
In addition, for this riding, the Commission received compelling representation from the current MP and several mayors concerning the boundary in the area of Conception Bay North. Consideration of this representation resulted in substantial changes to the boundaries of the three ridings on the Avalon Peninsula, including the riding of Avalon.
The Commission recommends three changes to its boundaries to bring the population closer to the reference quota. First, under the previous redistribution, the Town of Paradise had been divided between the districts of Avalon and St. John's East. The Commission decided to redraw the boundaries so that the entire town was moved to the district of St. John's South—Mount Pearl rather than dividing the town across districts. The benefit to the municipality of not being divided is significant. Indeed, presentations made to the Commission during the public hearings phase reinforced this decision as residents repeatedly indicated that dividing the municipality across more than one federal riding was detrimental to the municipality, and those members of the public who chose to engage with the process were unanimous in their support for uniting the municipality into a single district.
Second, the communities in Conception Bay North from Bay Roberts to Victoria should remain in the riding of Avalon. The boundary in this area between this riding and the adjacent riding of Bonavista—Burin—Trinity should be drawn just north of Salmon Cove. The Commission can thus help preserve the community of interest that has been created along the coast of Conception Bay between Brigus and Victoria, a region that is calling itself "Conception Bay North," with substantial cooperation and collaboration among the municipalities. This decision responds to the strong representation from the area to keep these municipalities in one riding. This growing region will remain in the district of Avalon, which will change shape to accommodate the changes in population to the region.
Third, the substantial changes in the Conception Bay North area necessitated a significant change to the boundary in the southern, rural part of the riding. While there is only a very small population on the Avalon Peninsula west of Whitbourne and down toward Branch, the Commission decided that the boundary in this area should be moved so that the municipalities on the Placentia Bay side of the southwestern portion of what was the Avalon district be moved to the district immediately to the west. This includes the town of Markland, directly to the south of Whitbourne, which should be moved into the Bonavista—Burin—Trinity riding.
These three changes reduce the population of Avalon to 81,781. As a result, the district deviates from the reference quota by 1.40% and from the provincial quota by 12.13%.
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity
This district has recorded a decrease of 6.27% in its population since the 2011 census. This decline in population led the Commission to increase the geographical area of the district to bring its population closer to the reference quota.
The public consultation involving this riding elicited comments in two broad areas. First, that it should be smaller to reflect the difficulty of providing proper service by the MP. Second, the towns in Bonavista North comprise a community and should not be divided, as the Commission had recommended in its proposal. That suggestion was supported by representatives from two MPs as well as several mayors and municipal officials from the area.
The Commission found these representations compelling and in line with its commitment to keep municipalities and communities of interest together, and it was prepared to adjust its proposal to reflect the concerns articulated.
In its discussion of the riding of Avalon, the Commission agreed to keep all the towns comprising Conception Bay North in that riding as well as Salmon Cove. This will significantly reduce the population of Bonavista—Burin—Trinity.
In order to keep the communities in Bonavista North together in one riding, the Commission has decided to keep the northern boundary of this riding where it has been for the past 10 years. The area of Bonavista North, extending west of Carmanville to Gander Bay (including the small communities of Davidsville, Frederickton, Main Point and Noggin Cove) will remain in the riding of Bonavista—Burin—Trinity. This responds to the strong representation from municipal leaders and others to keep the municipalities in this area in one riding.
In addition, the Commission is proposing a shift in the boundary in the Placentia Bay area. This change would move the communities from Placentia to St. Brides and Branch from the Avalon district and into the Bonavista—Burin—Trinity district.
This change has the further benefit of uniting the town of Markland and the town of Whitbourne into a single riding (Bonavista—Burin—Trinity) rather than having Markland located in the Avalon district. The separation of the town of Whitbourne and the town of Markland into different districts was raised by a number of members of the public. They noted that there were significant challenges for Markland, one of which was that it did not have a suitable location to house a polling station; therefore, citizens needed to go to Whitbourne to vote, even though Whitbourne was in a neighbouring riding. This situation tended to lead to substantial confusion at the polling station.
With this Commission's recommended boundary changes, Bonavista—Burin—Trinity will have a population of 76,121. This number deviates from the reference quota by -5.61% and from the provincial quota by 4.37%. This change leads to a decrease in the population of this riding, although that is balanced by the riding's increased geographical area, which incorporates four separate peninsulas across four bays.
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame
This district recorded a decline in population of 4.98% from 2011. It is also one of the largest and most geographically dispersed districts on the island; therefore, increasing its size to incorporate more population may not be optimal for representation in the region. It was pointed out by submissions from the public that, in the proposal report, this riding was both large geographically and at the same time had a population comparable to the more compact St. John's ridings.
In its proposal, the Commission recommended substantial changes to the electoral boundaries of this riding in the area of Bonavista North, moving large amounts of this region into the Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame riding. However, upon reflection as a result of the thoughtful presentations made at the public hearings, the Commission has reversed its recommendations affecting this region. There will be no change in the boundary of this riding in its eastern extent.
The Commission therefore recommends only a small change to this district's boundaries, in the White Bay region. We propose to move the communities of Galeville, Georges Cove and The Beaches out of the Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame district into Long Range Mountains.
These changes result in a population for Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame of 74,122. This number deviates from the reference quota by -8.09% and from the provincial quota by 1.63%.
Labrador
This district recorded a decline in population of 0.27% from that recorded in 2011. In a normal redistribution, a decline in population would lead to an increase in geographical area to bring the district closer to the quota. However, based on our discussion earlier, the Commission is of the view that extraordinary circumstances exist in the case of Labrador and that a significant deviation from the provincial quota is warranted. No change is being made to the boundaries of this district.
Thus, with a population of 26,655, Labrador deviates from the provincial quota by -63.45%. This compares with a deviation of -63.6% in the report of the 2012 commission.
Long Range Mountains
This district recorded a decline in population of 6.71% from the 2011 census. This would normally result in a proposal to increase its geographical area to bring it closer to the provincial quota. Even with this decline, however, the population in this district remains close to the reference quota, in line with other districts. Its 2021 population of 81,716 represents a deviation from the reference quota of only 1.32%. The deviation from the provincial quota is 12.04%.
This district, like the neighbouring district of Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame, is one of the largest districts, geographically speaking. Indeed, the two ridings together constitute approximately 75% of the geography of the island portion of the province. The Commission is acutely aware of the representational challenges that occur when MPs must travel across large land masses to work on behalf of constituents in multiple and disparate regions; therefore, it does not recommend any drastic changes to this riding.
While the Commission received representation that both the population and the geographical area of this riding were large for proper servicing by the MP, it also considered that the geographical makeup of the riding, and the transportation links within it, made it difficult to move any portion of the riding to an adjacent riding. However, a small change is being made in the area of White Bay.
When the Commission reviewed the existing boundaries of this district, it found an anomalous situation in White Bay. While the town of Hampden is within the district, the adjacent communities of Galeville, Georges Cove and The Beaches are not. They are connected by road to Hampden, but are situated within the neighbouring district of Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame. Thus, the Commission has redrawn the boundaries so that these small communities are located within the district to which they are most connected, that of Long Range Mountains. The impact on the overall population is minimal.
This change results in a population for Long Range Mountains of 81,795. It deviates from the reference quota by 1.42% and from the provincial quota by 12.15%.
St. John's East
This district recorded an increase in population of 6.6% from the 2011 census, which would justify a reduction in its geographical area to bring it closer to the provincial quota. The Commission, however, sought to balance province-wide representational challenges linked to both population size and geographical size. Because of some of the other changes made on the Avalon Peninsula, the Commission decided to make adjustments to the boundaries of this riding in three areas.
First, within the City of St. John's, the boundary between this riding and St. John's South—Mount Pearl generally followed Kenmount Road and Freshwater Road to the harbour. The Commission decided that the boundary will now run along Pennywell Road, Prince of Wales Street and Springdale Street to the south side of the harbour.
Second, the Commission decided to end the division of the Town of Paradise between two ridings. Previously, the town was divided between the districts of Avalon and St. John's East. The Commission decided that the entire municipality of Paradise should be united and that it should be moved outside the St John's East district into the adjacent district of St. John's South—Mount Pearl.
In addition, the Commission has redrawn the boundary between St. John's East and St. John's South—Mount Pearl so that the areas on both sides of St. John's Harbour will be located within St. John's East. This change satisfies the objective of maintaining a community of interest around the harbour, an issue raised by the public in the 2012 boundary commission hearings. Indeed, members of the public who made verbal presentations during public hearings spoke in favour of this change, and they pointed to significant benefits to the residents in the region if the harbour remained united, with representation by a single MP.
These changes result in a population for St. John's East of 85,038. It deviates from the reference quota by 5.44% and the provincial quota by 16.59%.
St. John's South—Mount Pearl
This district recorded a small decrease in its population of 0.49% from the 2011 census. The Commission sought to think of all easternmost districts on the Avalon peninsula simultaneously. This would achieve some balance across the region: the population is growing unevenly across the three districts, while the rest of the province has experienced substantial population decline.
The Commission has made a few key changes to this district, some minor and some more substantive. First, the Commission viewed the area around St. John's Harbour as being akin to a community of interest. As a result, it has redrawn the boundary to include this area entirely in the district of St. John's East, moving it from St. John's South—Mount Pearl.
Second, the Commission has united the entire municipality of Paradise (previously split between two districts, Avalon and St. John's East) and moved it into the district of St. John's South—Mount Pearl. This decision reflects the largest change to the district, which thereby changes shape and becomes a wide district that extends from Paradise on Conception Bay at the district's westernmost point to Cape Spear on the eastern coast.
Third, as noted above in the description of St. John's East, the Commission has changed the boundary within the City of St. John's to follow Pennywell Road, Prince of Wales Street and Springdale Street to the south side of the harbour instead of following Kenmount Road and Freshwater Road.
These changes result in a population for St. John's South—Mount Pearl of 85,038. It deviates from the reference quota by 5.44% and from the provincial quota by 16.59%.
Summary
The Commission has made boundary changes that respond to the changes in population since the census of 2011. In so doing, it has maintained the population of each of the island districts within 8% of the reference quota. The Commission wishes to stress that the two districts with the largest population (St. John's East and St. John's South—Mount Pearl) are also geographically the smallest, so that the MP has substantially less ground to cover in comparison with all the other ridings in the province. This decision thus allows for a more equitable distribution of federal representation across the province. The table below summarizes the results that form the basis of the Commission's report.
| Federal Electoral District 2022 (2013 Representation Order names) |
2021 Population | Deviation from Provincial Quota | Deviation from Reference Quota |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalon | 81,781 | 12.13% | 1.40% |
| Bonavista—Burin—Trinity | 76,121 | 4.37% | −5.61% |
| Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame | 74,122 | 1.63% | −8.09% |
| Labrador | 26,655 | −63.45% | −66.95% |
| Long Range Mountains | 81,795 | 12.15% | 1.42% |
| St. John's East | 85,038 | 16.59% | 5.44% |
| St. John's South—Mount Pearl | 85,038 | 16.59% | 5.44% |
| Total Population | 510,550 |
It is evident that keeping the current boundaries of Labrador has an impact on the other districts. However, for the reasons outlined above, the Commission has decided that Labrador should remain a separate district. The resulting variance from the provincial quota is in line with the legislative direction and compares favourably with representation in other parts of Canada. We would note that where the population of the districts on the island is considered, the variance from what we have called the reference quota is very small. It meets the goal set by the Commission of having a variance of less than 8% for the island districts.