Introduction – Nova Scotia
By Order in Council dated November 1, 2021, the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for the Province of Nova Scotia (the Commission) was established pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. E-3 (the Act).
The Commission is comprised of three members: Dr. Louise Carbert, Dr. David Johnson and Justice Cindy A. Bourgeois. Both Dr. Carbert and Dr. Johnson are political science professors, at Dalhousie University and Cape Breton University respectively, and were appointed by the Speaker of the House of Commons. Justice Bourgeois sits on the Nova Scotia Court of Appeal and was appointed by the Chief Justice of Nova Scotia. The Commission is assisted in its work by its Secretary, Ms. Carol Moulaison.
The role of the Commission is, in response to the 2021 decennial census, to examine and readjust the boundaries of the federal electoral districts (also known as constituencies or ridings) within the province. There are currently 11 electoral districts and this number will remain unchanged.
The 2021 decennial census documented the population of the province as 969,383. Dividing the total population by 11 gives an average or "electoral quota" of 88,126 people in each district. Section 15 of the Act says that the number of people in each electoral district must correspond as closely as is reasonably possible to that electoral quota. In attempting to achieve this goal, the Commission must consider two factors:
- The community of interest, community of identity or historical pattern of an electoral district in the province
- A manageable geographic size for districts in sparsely populated, rural or northern regions of the province (subsection 15(1)(b) of the Act)
These factors can also provide justification to depart from the electoral quota in an electoral district. However, the Act provides that, except in extraordinary circumstances, the population in the electoral district must remain within 25% more or 25% less of the electoral quota. For the Commission's work, this means that an electoral district can have no fewer than 66,095 people and no more than 110,158 unless there are extraordinary reasons to depart from that variance. The Commission has not identified any extraordinary circumstances; therefore, all 11 electoral districts must fall within the population range noted above.
In conjunction with the Act, the Commission's decisions must also be guided by the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, particularly section 3 which guarantees Canadian citizens the right to vote in federal and provincial elections. This right has been interpreted by the Supreme Court of Canada in a manner that sets constitutional criteria for the drawing of electoral boundaries. In what is known as "the Carter decision," the Supreme Court said that the right to vote means the right to "effective representation," not just an equality of voting power. The Court ruled "effective representation" requires "relative parity of voting power." Absolute equality of population size among electoral districts is not required. However, deviations from equality resulting in "relative parity of voting power" for the purpose of accommodating geography, communities of interest or minority representation must be "justified on the ground that they contribute to better government of the populace as a whole." In other words, the variation from the electoral quota established under the Act must be justified.
The Commission received the 2021 decennial population figures on February 9, 2022, and immediately began its review, guided by the above principles. Table 1 below summarizes the population in each electoral district after the 2012 redistribution was completed, as well as the changes reflecting the 2021 census data. It also shows, as the boundaries currently exist, the electoral quota variation by way of a positive or negative percentage. Several observations were readily apparent to the Commission:
- The Province has recorded a population increase of 47,656 since the 2011 decennial census.
- There has been a significant increase in population in urban Halifax and its outlying areas. Notably, the riding of Halifax has increased in population by 14,367 in the last decade, and Halifax West accounts for over 50% of the province's growth, with an increase of 24,669.
- Although other rural constituencies have shown smaller decreases in population, Cape Breton—Canso (a decrease of 3,867), Central Nova (a decrease of 1,409) and Sydney—Victoria (a decrease of 967) have shown the greatest losses.
- If the electoral boundaries remained unchanged, one riding, Halifax West, exceeds the permittable 25% variance. In addition, several other electoral districts, based on the new population data, have variances approaching this limit.
| After Redistribution 2012 (Electoral Quota 83,793) | Prior to Redistribution 2022 (Electoral Quota 88,126) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electoral District Name | 2012 Population | 2012 Variation | 2022 Population | 2022 Variation |
| Cape Breton—Canso | 75,247 | −10.20% | 71,380 | −19.00% |
| Central Nova | 74,597 | −10.98% | 73,188 | −16.95% |
| Cumberland—Colchester | 82,321 | −1.76% | 82,014 | −6.94% |
| Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | 91,212 | +8.85% | 96,165 | +9.12% |
| Halifax | 92,643 | +10.56% | 107,010 | +21.43% |
| Halifax West | 87,275 | +4.16% | 111,944 | +27.03% |
| Kings—Hants | 83,306 | −0.58% | 87,744 | −0.43% |
| Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook | 85,583 | +2.14% | 89,524 | +1.59% |
| South Shore—St. Margarets | 92,561 | +10.46% | 94,482 | +7.21% |
| Sydney—Victoria | 73,328 | −12.49% | 72,361 | −17.89% |
| West Nova | 83,654 | −0.17% | 83,571 | −5.17% |
| Total | 921,727 | 969,383 | ||
Based on the above, the Commission is of the view that the existing electoral boundaries require alteration. It is not as simple however, as making a single adjustment to Halifax West to bring it within the 25% permissible variance. Adjusting the boundary or boundaries of one riding necessarily results in the adjustment of adjoining ridings, and this often causes a cascading effect to others. The marked growth in the urban ridings requires that the Commission consider how population can be added to more rural ridings. This results in a number of significant boundary shifts being proposed, while remaining cognizant of communities of interest, historical considerations and geographical constraints.
For the reasons stated above, the Commission proposes a re-alignment of the 11 federal electoral districts for the province, including several changes of name, in accordance with Table 2 below and the legal descriptions and maps of the proposed electoral districts as set out in Appendix 1.
| After Redistribution in 2022 (Electoral Quota 88,126) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Electoral District Name | 2021 Population | Variation |
| Acadian Shore—Shelburne | 89,956 | +2.08% |
| Cape Breton—Antigonish | 84,999 | −3.55% |
| Cumberland—Colchester | 82,014 | −6.94% |
| Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | 93,622 | +6.24% |
| Halifax | 97,243 | +10.35% |
| Halifax West | 90,917 | +3.17% |
| Kings—Hants | 87,409 | −0.81% |
| Pictou—Eastern Shore—Preston | 88,398 | +0.31% |
| Shubenacadie—Bedford Basin | 91,176 | +3.46% |
| South Shore—St. Margarets | 91,288 | +3.59% |
| Sydney—Victoria | 72,361 | −17.89% |
| Total | 969,383 | |
In this document, you will also find the proposed places, dates and times for public hearings, at which any interested party or parties may make representations in accordance with the rules set out in this proposal. The Commission will also be offering a public hearing in a virtual format to improve the ease of participation.
The Commission looks forward to hearing from all interested parties, either in person, virtually or in writing. We ask that all interested parties pay particular attention to the rules set out herein and check the Commission website (redistribution2022.ca) regularly for any changes of schedule.