Comment 343 – comments and feedback

Patrick Sherman

Scarborough is a Community of Neighbourhoods

The Boundaries Commission has lost sight of two important elements: representation by population and fairness. The cultural identity and historical significance of Scarborough has been disregarded. The fact that the entire north Scarborough community grew out of Agincourt Village, established 164 years ago and the western boundary of Scarborough having always been Victoria Park since before Confederation seems to be of no consequence.

Since Toronto amalgamated under Mike Harris's watch Scarborough has suffered. The largest majority of Scarborough's population is composed of immigrants. In 2016, 57% of residents were foreign-born while visible minorities make up 74% of the population. Scarborough has the largest concentration of Sri Lankan Tamils outside Sri Lanka.

Just in case it's been forgotten, Canada needs these people. Due to changing demographics Scarborough is changing. Poverty is a growing problem. Immigrant support and integration services are lacking. Higher level transit is a joke. Hospitals need attention but thankfully we're getting there.

Community building isn't happenstance. It takes people organizing, working together, and leaning on their representatives to achieve a common good. In a supportive environment immigrants can and will create vibrant multicultural locales. Notable in Scarborough is the concentration of Chinese businesses and restaurants in the Agincourt neighbourhood, middle eastern and Indian restaurants around Lawrence Ave east. Scarborough has become a destination featured in Trip Advisor and Blog TO.

The reality of the loss of a federal seat will inhibit this community's voice federally, provincially and municipally. With a reported population of 630,000 (higher when you include under-coverage), reducing Scarborough's representation from six seats to five is very unfair.

One person, one vote is a bedrock principle, not only of democracy, but of justice. We'd be in a far stronger position to insist on that principle if... we'd ever actually followed it. The BNA act has been amended multiple times since 1867 in an effort by parties to protect the status quo. The cumulative effect of all these amendments has been to make representation by population virtually impossible. Indeed, Canada has one of the most unequal franchises in the democratic world.

The system of non-partisan, independent commissions was instituted in 1964, designed to combat the entrenched practice of partisan gerrymandering. Great Idea but the system does beg a question. What type of discretion do boundary commissions possess?

In the 2021 census Scarborough had a population of 630,000 a change of 0.3% from its 2016 population of 632,000. Let's get real. Scarborough is to lose a seat because our population went down by 0.3% during a pandemic and a lockdown.

The estimate of undercounted residents in Scarborough is in the 50,000 range, based on estimates from social service agencies during recent planning consultations led by the City of Toronto.

Under-coverage challenges are often problematic for censuses. It's even more problematic for a census conducted in the middle of the COVID‐19 pandemic. In fact, the City of Toronto's report on the 2021 census says that, while the estimated under-coverage for Toronto was ~3% in 2016, it may have almost doubled to 6% in 2021.

The Commission is making redistribution recommendations based on census data which is more flawed than usual, especially for Toronto and for Scarborough in particular. If the conservative estimate of 50,000 is added to the 630,000 residents of Scarborough as reported by the census, our population would be 8% higher and there would be no rationale to remove a riding from Scarborough.

Fairness

How can the City of Toronto grow in population by 63,000 people between 2016 and 2021, and yet lose a federal seat? At the same time, other parts of Ontario and the rest of Canada are not growing, yet they retain their representation. Toronto is being disadvantaged in a high stakes game of GO that moves seats around from our growing city to faster growing areas, while regions that aren't growing at all are protected. Why is Scarborough, with its large immigrant constituency who need all the help they can get, having to take the hit?

• The British North America Act said no province would lose seats unless its share of the population falls by 5 per cent.
• The "Senate floor" ruling – 1915 amending the BNA act, guaranteed that no province could have fewer seats than it had Senators. Senate seats were allocated by the Constitution in 1867, ensuring over-representation of the four Atlantic Provinces.
• Then there's the "grandfather clause" in the 1985 Representation Act which provides that no province may have fewer seats than it had at that time (1985). So Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec are also over-represented.
• The Fair Representation Act (2011) guarantees that no province over-represented at the past redistribution can be under-represented at the next. The Federal Government having proposed to increase the number of seats only in Ontario, B.C. and Alberta, found itself under ferocious attack in Quebec. The province was hastily awarded another three seats.

Attachment :

Ms. Paula Puddy
Secretary | Secrétaire
Ontario Commission | Commission pour l'Ontario
PO Box 37018 Southdale
London, Ontario, N6E 3T3

Dear Paula;

Regarding Federal Electoral Districts Redistribution 2022 Commission (Ontario) namely the Honourable Justice Lynne C. Leitch, Dr. Karen Bird and Dr. Peter John Loewan.

I am submitting a copy of our deputation (Scarborough Citizens Coalition, SCC) made the evening of October 18 at the Scarborough Civic Centre for consideration by the Commission.

I am also enclosing a petition that was conducted by Scarborough Citizens Coalition (SCC) asking two questions;

1. In light of the historical and cultural significance of the area, and in particular of the history behind Agincourt, which was established in the 1850's, maintain the riding name of Scarborough Agincourt, rather than adopting the proposed name of Scarborough Northwest.
2. In light of the communities of interest and identity that exist within the boundaries of the current riding of Scarborough-Agincourt, which is distinct from the identity of the neighbouring areas, maintain the current boundaries of the riding of Scarborough-Agincourt.

The signatures were collected by community volunteers going door to door and by interviewing individuals encountered in various neighbourhoods across north Scarborough. The total number of signatures is ~280. Thank you for your consideration.

Yours sincerely

Patrick Sherman, Chairman
Scarborough Citizens Coalition

Scarborough Citizens Coalition (SCC) has read the Commission's proposal with much concern. We strongly object to Scarborough's diminished representation and the breaking up of Scarborough along our western boundary, as proposed by the Commission.

The system of non-partisan, independent commissions was instituted in 1964. The introduction of commissions was designed to combat the entrenched practice of partisan gerrymandering that successive governments from across the political spectrum enthusiastically carried out from Confederation onward. The extensive discretion granted to commissions to set boundaries, however, generates a new series of potential problems that can undermine the fairness of the electoral map. What type of discretion do boundary commissions possess? How have the commissions interpreted and applied this discretion? Has the ample leeway for discretionary decision making granted to the commissions furthered the fundamental values underlying Canadian redistricting?

One person, one vote is a bedrock principle, not only of democracy, but of justice, a recognition of the equal worth of every individual. Only, we'd be in a far stronger position to insist on that principle if ... we'd ever actually followed it.

• The British North America Act (now the Constitution Act 1867), our founding document, specified that no province would lose seats unless its share of the population had fallen by at least 5 per cent.
• The "Senate floor" followed in 1915, guaranteeing that no province could have fewer seats in the House than it had Senators_ Senate seats were allocated and written into the Constitution in 1867 and that ensures the over-representation of the four Atlantic Provinces.
• Then there's the "grandfather clause" in the 1985 Representation Act passed by the Mulroney government, which provides that no province may have no fewer seats than it had at that time. So Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec are also over¬represented.
• Yet a third rule stipulates that no province that was over-represented at the past redistribution can be under-represented at the next. This was a gift from the Harper government, via the 2011 Fair Representation Act. Having initially proposed to increase the number of seats only in Ontario, B.C. and Alberta, it found itself under ferocious attack in Quebec merely for leaving the province's number of seats unchanged. That was soon remedied: the province was hastily awarded another three seats.

The cumulative effect of all these rules has been to make representation by population virtually impossible. Indeed, Canada has one of the most unequal franchises in the democratic world.

In the 2021 Census of Population conducted by Statistics Canada, Scarborough had a population of 629,941 living in 218,928 of its 228,939 total private dwellings, a change of -0.3% from its 2016 population of 632,098.

The vast majority of Scarborough's population is composed of immigrants who have arrived in the last five decades, and their descendants. In 2016, 5E6% of residents were foreign-born visible minorities make up 73.4% of the population.

The loss of a federal seat inhibits our voice federally, provincially, and municipally. With a reported population of 630,000 (higher when you include under-coverage), reducing Scarborough's representation from six seats to five is very unfair. Furthermore, the new boundaries disregard historical communities and remove the Agincourt community from the electoral map. It is our belief that redrawing the boundaries should strengthen representation and community identity, not weaken them, especially for historically underrepresented populations.

We respectfully submit the following for the Commission to consider, to re-evaluate the realignment proposed for Scarborough and Toronto:

1. Scarborough is a Community of Interest

   The proposed redistribution disregards the cultural identity and historical significance of Scarborough and its many neighbourhoods, including Agincourt, Milliken, and the Golden Mile. In fact, the entire north Scarborough community grew out of Agincourt Village, which was established 164 years ago.

   Scarborough is an interconnected local network of health care services, police services, social service organizations, residents associations, and local businesses. To simply move parts of Wexford, Maryvale, Tam O'Shanter and L'Amoreaux into North York (and break up Agincourt) without taking into account the social and economic integration of these communities within Scarborough would be a mistake. The realignment literally changes the face of Scarborough and its distinctive communities.

   The immigrant population has created vibrant multicultural locales in various areas of Scarborough. One of the more notable among these is the heavy concentration of Chinese businesses and restaurants in the Agincourt neighbourhood. Many of Scarborough's main arteries, including segments of Kingston Road, Eglinton Avenue East and Lawrence Avenue East, feature Caribbean, Chinese, African, and Indian restaurants and shops, as well as businesses representing the other ethnic groups in the area. Scarborough also has the largest concentration of Sri Lankan Tamils outside Sri Lanka.

   The western boundary of Scarborough has been Victoria Park Avenue, from Lake Ontario to Steeles Avenue, since before Confederation. Our political boundary has never waivered from this until now.

   Scarborough has a long history of attracting newcomers due to our excellent settlement services, the diverse and welcoming nature of our distinctive communities, and supports from community members, who help other newcomers from their homeland to settle and integrate in Scarborough. In short, Scarborough is a community of interest, both historical and contemporary, consisting of distinctive communities of identity, which should not be broken up. Furthermore, Scarborough ridings frequently elect political representatives that reflect the ethnic character of their communities. Reducing Scarborough's representation at all three levels of government will make it more difficult for Parliament (and Queen's Park and City Hall) to be reflective of the cultural and ethnic mosaic that is modern day Canada.

   The Province of Ontario aligns the boundaries of its provincial ridings and municipal wards with the federal boundaries. Therefore, not only would Scarborough lose a voice in Parliament, Scarborough would also lose representation at Queen's Park and at Toronto City Council.

   In short, if this redistribution proposal is adopted, Scarborough loses three times.

2. Scarborough's Undercounted Population

   The estimate of undercounted residents in Scarborough is in the 50,000 range, based on estimates from social service agencies during recent planning consultations led by the City of Toronto regarding multi-tenant housing and rooming houses.

   Under-coverage challenges are often problematic for censuses. It's even more problematic for a census conducted in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, the City of Toronto's report on the 2021 census says that, while the estimated under-coverage for Toronto was 3.12% in 2016, it may have almost doubled to 6.05% in 2021.

   Under-coverage challenges are most acute in communities which include large numbers of "non-traditional" residents and households, like Scarborough.

   More than half of Scarborough's population consists of new Canadians and permanent residents, many of whom do not speak English or French as their first language and who may therefore be less inclined to complete a census than other residents.

   Furthermore, Scarborough has a significant population of "non-traditional" residents: individuals and families in precarious housing, refugee claimants, international students, temporary foreign workers, and undocumented residents. These "under the radar" population cohorts are likely to be more prevalent in Scarborough (and in Toronto) than elsewhere in Ontario and would be less likely to complete a census than traditional residents. Furthermore, these residents are less likely to have access to computers and the internet than other residents. And they wouldn't be answering the door for census workers in the middle of a pandemic.

   For all these reasons, it is reasonable to conclude that communities with a high percentage of recent immigrants, temporary foreign workers, foreign students, refugee claimants and other undocumented residents would have a higher under-coverage rate than communities that do not.

   It is therefore reasonable to assume that the census methodology has resulted in an under-reported population for Scarborough that exceeds the provincial or national average. The Commission is making redistribution recommendations based on census data which is more flawed than usual, especially for Toronto, and for Scarborough in particular. If the conservative estimate of 50,000 is added to the 629,941 residents of Scarborough as reported by the census, our population would be 8% higher and there would be no rationale to remove a riding from Scarborough.

3. Fairness

   The overall federal electoral boundaries process has lost sight of two important elements: representation by population and fairness. How can the City of Toronto grow in population, by 62,785 people between 2016 and 2021, and yet lose a federal seat? At the same time, other parts of Ontario and the rest of Canada are not growing, yet they retain their representation.

   Toronto is the largest and most diverse city in Canada with significant growth expected over the next five years. However, it is being disadvantaged in a zero-sum game that moves seats around from our growing city to faster growing areas, while regions that aren't growing at all are protected.

   And it's Scarborough that takes the hit.

SCC recommends:

1. That the number of federal ridings in Scarborough be maintained at six
   1. Maintaining Toronto at 25 seats would mean an average population of 111,774 reported residents per riding (more if you include unreported residents), which is only 4% lower than the 116,590 target size for Ontario, which is well within the barometers that have been delegated to the Commission.
2. That Victoria Park Avenue continues to be the western boundary for Scarborough ridings, from Lake Ontario to Steeles Avenue, as it has been since before Confederation,

Scarborough/City of Toronto Federal Electoral Districts Petition

September 2022

Petition to the Ontario Commission for the Federal Electoral Districts Redistribution, namely The Honourable Justice Lynne C. Leitch, Dr. Karen Bird, and Dr. Peter John Loewen:

We are greatly concerned about the proposed changes to the Federal Electoral Districts, particularly the loss of an electoral riding in Scarborough and Toronto.

The proposal takes out a large portion of Scarborough North, and a sizable portion of Scarborough-Agincourt, and collapses areas of these communities into a new riding called Scarborough Northwest. This would not only break up existing communities, but it would redistribute a significant portion of Scarborough-Agincourt into North York and deletes any reference to the history of Agincourt in the process. The Village of Agincourt has been in existence for 164 years, since 1858 and continues to this present day to have a rich cultural and historical identity.

The western municipal boundary of Scarborough clearly ends at Victoria Park Ave, Taking parts of Scarborough from Warden Ave. and Pharmacy Rd. to Victoria Park Ave. will break up police services from 42 Division, health care services, and social and seniors' community services. Scarborough-Agincourt has large numbers of seniors, new immigrants, and families, and over the decades, our community has created an interconnected network of services that meet its unique needs. This is also true of other Scarborough districts.

redacted: 279 names and addresses

	Name (Print)	Address* (Print)	Email (Print)	Phone
1	redacted: 279 names and addresses
2

* Please note that the use of any address format that clearly establishes the place where a signatory resides is acceptable.