Comment 379 – comments and feedback

Etobicoke Centre Conservative Association

Please find attached a supplementary submission with respect to the boundary proposal for Etobicoke Centre. This is a follow-up to my presentation at the virtual hearing on September 29, 2022.

Yours truly,

Geoffrey Turner

Conservative Party Candidate-of-Record, Etobicoke Centre

attachment:

to: Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario
Sent by email: ON@redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca

October 21, 2022

Honourable Commissioners:

Concerns with Redistribution Proposal for Etobicoke Centre

My name is Geoffrey Turner, and I am the Conservative Party candidate-of-record for Etobicoke Centre. I am also a resident of the portion of Etobicoke (east of Islington, north of Bloor) that the Commission proposes to place into the new Humber riding together with a substantial part of York South-Weston.

This submission supplements the presentation I made at the September 29, 2022 virtual hearing on behalf of the Etobicoke Centre Conservative Association and our 2,486 members.

Retain Humber River Boundary for Etobicoke Centre

The population of Etobicoke-Lakeshore to the south of Etobicoke Centre has increased dramatically, due in large part to condominium development along the shore of Lake Ontario. It is clear the southern border of Etobicoke Centre needs to be shifted south to make Etobicoke-Lakeshore smaller. The southern boundary at Dundas and Bloor through the Six Points intersection that the Commission has proposed is a reasonable solution.

However, instead of also shifting the northern border of Etobicoke Centre a bit further south in parallel with the southerly shift of its southern border, the Commission has proposed expanding the northern border further north, up to the 401 Expressway.

In addition, the Commission has proposed to move the eastern boundary of Etobicoke Centre at the Humber River west to Islington Avenue. This has the unfortunate effect of carving through the heart of Etobicoke Centre, and bundling the Etobicoke neighbourhoods east of Islington with substantively dissimilar communities across the Humber River in current York South-Weston.

The eastern boundary of Etobicoke Centre should remain at the Humber River. That eastern boundary should not be shifted west to the arbitrary border of Islington Avenue as proposed.

Etobicoke residents east of Islington should remain in Etobicoke-focused ridings that reflect the Etobicoke community of interest, and that respect the longstanding historical municipal boundaries of the Etobicoke and the undeniably significant geographical boundary at the Humber River.

Etobicoke Communities Belong in Etobicoke Ridings

Etobicoke Centre is a suburban riding at the west end of Toronto. It contains many neighbourhoods with single detached homes and has a relatively high income per capita. Several neighbourhoods on the west side of the Humber River (including those east of Islington that the Commission is proposing to remove from Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore and move to Humber) are among the most affluent areas in Toronto.

Because of Etobicoke's long history as a separate municipality, the lives of many Etobicoke families are focused on Etobicoke schools, shopping, community organizations, places of worship, services and workplaces. Decades after amalgamation into the City of Toronto, there remains a strong Etobicoke community identity and commonality of interest within Etobicoke.

Several speakers at the September 29 public hearing emphasized this same Etobicoke identity and history. For example, Elizabeth Hoyle and Katie Ditomaso from Etobicoke-Lakeshore both described the numerous social and economic connections that give Etobicoke a distinct character and an Etobicoke-wide community of interest.

In addition, the comments of Mike Sullivan from York South-Weston are particularly cogent. Mr. Sullivan served as the NDP Member of Parliament for York South-Weston from 2011-2015. He painted a stark contrast between his neighbourhoods of York South-Weston (which he characterized as generally lower income and working class), and those Etobicoke neighbourhoods east of Islington which the Commission proposes to bundle together in the new Humber riding. Mr. Sullivan contended those neighbourhoods have very different characteristics on numerous statistical and empirical dimensions, and it makes no sense to join them together in an awkward, artificial riding of Humber with little commonality of interest.

Critical Media Coverage and Community Feedback

The Commission is referred to the recent article in the Etobicoke Guardian and Toronto Star about the controversial Islington boundary proposal: https://www.thestar.com/local-toronto-etobicoke/news/2022/09/22/federal-commission-proposal-would-move-eastern-etobicoke-centre-into-new-humber-riding.html

The story highlights concerns with dividing up Etobicoke Centre at the artificial Islington boundary, and the unintended partisan advantage that would give to the Liberal Party in Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore and York South-Weston. In his September 29 presentation, Mr. Sullivan also expressed strong concerns from his NDP perspective about the political advantage to the Liberal Party from carving up York South-Weston and shifting the boundary to Islington.

The Etobicoke Centre Conservative Association has received numerous complaints about the Commission's proposal from concerned Etobicoke residents, including by emails, in hundreds of conversations with local citizens particularly during the Taste of the Kingsway festival, and as manifested in a broadly supported petition objecting to the proposed Islington boundary.

In addition, there were multiple speakers at the September 29 Toronto-wide public hearing who raised concerns with various aspects of the Commission's proposals for Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke Lakeshore and York South-Weston.

It is acknowledged the Commission is not required to propose electoral boundaries that are popular. Nonetheless, the Commission should be aware there is a significant negative public reaction to the proposals from these Etobicoke communities whose community allegiances lie within Etobicoke. Most concerning is the perspective of many residents who perceive a departure from neutrality that risks corroding the public's trust in the impartiality and integrity of the redistribution process.

It is therefore submitted that the public's negative assessment of the Commission's proposal for Etobicoke Centre is relevant and should be taken into account by preserving the Humber River boundary. These factors of public perception and acceptance are particularly compelling in this case where the Commission has an alternative way to adjust the Etobicoke Centre boundaries that could achieve the population target and would be perceived by the public as politically neutral.

Alternative Neutral Proposal to Keep Etobicoke Communities in Etobicoke Centre

The Commission should revise its proposal for Etobicoke Centre by retaining the eastern boundary at the Humber River. Etobicoke Centre should continue to embrace all of Etobicoke from west to east, Etobicoke Creek to the Humber River. This would ensure all Etobicoke neighbourhoods in central Etobicoke remain in Etobicoke-focused ridings, and it would be politically neutral.

As for the Kingsway neighbourhood currently in the northeastern corner of Etobicoke-Lakeshore (east of Islington, north of Bloor), it should either remain in Etobicoke-Lakeshore or become part of Etobicoke Centre, as it was prior to the redistribution in 1996. In either event, it should also remain in an Etobicoke-focused riding.

The Commission's proposal to shift the southern boundary of Etobicoke Centre further south, to make Etobicoke-Lakeshore geographically smaller, is sensible and reasonable. The northern boundary of Etobicoke Centre should also be shifted somewhat to the south of the current border at Dixon Road, in parallel with the southerly shifting of our southern boundary, so as to result in an east-west oriented riding with a population comprised of Etobicoke neighbourhoods close to the 116,590 target. For example, the Westway might serve as a suitable northern boundary.

The aggregate population of Etobicoke and its three electoral districts is 376,237, which is too large for three ridings of 116,590 and too small for four ridings of that target size. The necessity for some Etobicoke residents to be moved to adjacent ridings outside of Etobicoke is accordingly recognized.

This could be done with less controversy in Etobicoke North, where there is some historical precedent. In the northwest of Toronto there is greater commonality among the nearby communities, unlike in Etobicoke Centre where the contrast between the neighbourhoods east of Islington and those across the Humber River in York South-Weston could hardly be greater. Moreover, there would be no obvious partisan advantage arising from a boundary in Etobicoke North that bundles some of its residents with those of Humber River – Black Creek, for example.

Thank you for your consideration of these concerns with respect to the proposed Etobicoke Centre boundaries.

Yours truly,

Geoffrey Turner
Conservative Party Candidate-of-Record, Etobicoke Centre