Comment 39 – comments and feedback

Larry Whatmore, President of the Scarborough Community Renewal Organization

To: The Honourable Justice Lynne C. Leitch and Commission Members:

The Scarborough Community Renewal Organization (SCRO) is an organization of engaged volunteers from across Scarborough that works to connect, promote, and renew Scarborough. We work collaboratively with the leaders of Scarborough's tightly–knit network of community organizations, business associations, and public institutions to ensure Scarborough's "voice" is heard and to address the many years of underinvestment in our community's social and physical infrastructure.

SCRO has reviewed the Commission's report with much concern. We strongly object to Scarborough's diminished representation and the breaking up of Scarborough along our western boundary, as proposed by the Commission.

SCRO recommends:

1. That the number of federal ridings in Scarborough be restored to six, and
2. That Victoria Park Avenue continues to be the western boundary for Scarborough ridings, from Lake Ontario to Steeles Avenue, as it has been since before Confederation.

The loss of a federal seat inhibits our voice federally, provincially, and municipally. With a reported population of 630,000 (higher when you include undercoverage), reducing Scarborough's representation from six seats to five is not fair.

Furthermore, the new boundaries disregard historical communities and remove the Agincourt community from the electoral map. It is our belief that redrawing the boundaries should strengthen representation and community identity, not weaken them, especially for historically underrepresented populations.

We respectfully submit the following for the Commission to consider, to re–evaluate the realignment proposed for Scarborough and Toronto:

Scarborough is a Community of Interest

The proposed redistribution disregards the cultural identity and historical significance of Scarborough and its many neighbourhoods, including Agincourt, Milliken, and the Golden Mile. In fact, the entire north Scarborough community grew out of Agincourt Village, which was established 164 years ago. Our residents feel a strong sense of connection to Scarborough and their to local communities, which would be eroded by the Commission's proposals.

Scarborough is well–known for its diverse and distinctive neighbourhoods, many of which are ethno–specific communities of identity. In fact, Scarborough is the most ethnically diverse part of Toronto, where 74% of our residents are visible minorities.

Scarborough is an interconnected local network of health care services, police services, social service organizations, residents associations, and local businesses. To simply move parts of Wexford, Maryvale, Tam O'Shanter and L'Amoreaux into North York (and break up Agincourt) without taking into account the social and economic integration of these communities within Scarborough would be a mistake. The realignment literally changes the face of Scarborough and its distinctive communities.

The western boundary of Scarborough has been Victoria Park Avenue, from Lake Ontario to Steeles Avenue, since before Confederation. Our political boundary has never waivered from this; until now.

In short, Scarborough is a community of interest, both historical and contemporary, consisting of distinctive communities of identity, which should not be broken up.

Scarborough's Undercounted Population

The estimate of undercounted residents in Scarborough is in the 50,000 range, based on estimates from social service agencies during recent planning consultations led by the City of Toronto regarding multi–tenant housing and rooming houses.

Undercoverage challenges are often problematic for censuses. It's even more problematic for a census conducted in the middle of the COVID–19 pandemic. In fact, the City of Toronto's report on the 2021 census says that, while the estimated undercoverage for Toronto was 3.12% in 2016, it may have almost doubled to 6.05% in 2021.

Undercoverage challenges are most acute in communities which include large numbers of "non–traditional" residents and households, like Scarborough.

More than half of Scarborough's population consists of new Canadians and permanent residents, many of whom do not speak English or French as their first language and who may therefore be less inclined to complete a census than other residents.

Furthermore, Scarborough has a significant population of "non–traditional" residents: individuals and families in precarious housing, refugee claimants, international students, temporary foreign workers, and undocumented residents. These "under the radar" population cohorts are likely to be more prevalent in Scarborough (and in Toronto) than elsewhere in Ontario and would be less likely to complete a census than traditional residents. Furthermore, these residents are less likely to have access to computers and the internet than other residents. And they wouldn't be answering the door for census workers in the middle of a pandemic.

For all these reasons, it is reasonable to conclude that communities with a high percentage of recent immigrants, temporary foreign workers, foreign students, refugee claimants and other undocumented residents would have a higher undercoverage rate than communities that do not.

It is therefore reasonable to assume that the census methodology has resulted in an under–reported population for Scarborough that exceeds the provincial or national average.

Therefore, the Commission is making redistribution recommendations based on census data which is more flawed than usual, especially for Toronto, and for Scarborough in particular.

If the conservative estimate of 50,000 is added to the 629,941 residents of Scarborough as reported by the census, our population would be 8% higher and there would be no rationale to remove a riding from Scarborough.

Equity for our Diverse Communities

Seventy–four percent of Scarborough's residents are visible minorities, many of them new Canadians. Scarborough has a long history of attracting newcomers due to our excellent settlement services, the diverse and welcoming nature of our distinctive communities, and supports from community members, who help other newcomers from their homeland to settle and integrate in Scarborough.

Furthermore, Scarborough ridings frequently elect political representatives that reflect the ethnic character of their communities. Reducing Scarborough's representation at all three levels of government will make it more difficult for Parliament (and Queen's Park and City Hall) to be reflective of the cultural and ethnic mosaic that is modern day Canada.

Scarborough's large equity–seeking populations should not have their access to democratic representation reduced.

More Housing in the Development Pipeline for Scarborough and Toronto

As Canada's largest and most diverse community, the City of Toronto has in its development pipeline 503,362 new housing units and approximately 94,000 recently built. Scarborough alone has 46,636 units coming onstream within the next few years. Using a conservative estimate, Scarborough will grow by 87,000 to 96,000 new residents. New transit projects now under construction in Scarborough will increase our population even more.

The commission should consider growth that is already happening, based on planning and development activity already in progress, before reducing Scarborough's representation.

Local Businesses have Historical Connections to our Community

With the realignment of Scarborough's northwestern boundary from Victoria Park Avenue to the new boundary, there are a number of businesses in the affected areas that use Scarborough as part of their DNA. These businesses, like Johnny's Hamburgers, are proud to be part of Scarborough and wish to retain their Scarborough identity.

Reduced Political Representation at all Three Levels of Government

The Province of Ontario aligns the boundaries of its provincial ridings and municipal wards with the federal boundaries. Therefore, not only would Scarborough lose a voice in Parliament, Scarborough would also lose representation at Queen's Park and at Toronto City Council.

In short, if this redistribution proposal is adopted, Scarborough loses three times.

Fairness

The overall federal electoral boundaries process has lost sight of two important elements: representation by population and fairness. How can the City of Toronto grow in population, by 62,785 people between 2016 and 2021, and yet lose a federal seat? At the same time, other parts of Ontario and the rest of Canada are not growing, yet they retain their representation.

Toronto is the largest and most diverse city in Canada with significant growth expected over the next five years. However, it is being disadvantaged in a zero–sum game that moves seats around from our growing city to faster growing areas, while regions that aren't growing at all are protected.

And it's Scarborough that takes the hit.

Restoring Toronto to 25 seats would mean an average population of 111,774 reported residents per riding (more if you include unreported residents), which is only 4% lower than the 116,590 target size for Ontario, which is well within the parameters that have been delegated to the Commission.

SCRO appreciates the opportunity to address its concerns to the Commission. As an engaged group of volunteer leaders with connections to resident organizations, business associations, and public institutions across Scarborough, we request that Scarborough retain six seats and that the historical boundaries of Scarborough be respected, with Victoria Park Avenue remaining the western boundary for any realignment of Scarborough ridings.

Sincerely,
Larry Whatmore, President
Scarborough Community Renewal Organization

Dear Ms. Puddy and Honourable Justice Lynne C. Leitch:

Please find attached an online petition, posted on change.org and signed by more than 2,100 individuals, in support of maintaining Scarborough's historical boundary along Victoria Park Avenue and maintaining six ridings in Scarborough.

The Commission's proposal to break up Scarborough and reduce Scarborough's representation has engaged many passionate Scarborough residents in support of the community we call home, as you know from the exceptionally high level of engagement in the in-person hearing at the Scarborough Civic Centre and by the overflow participants in virtual hearings.

By now, the Commission has heard many comments with several recurring themes, including:

1. Scarborough is a community of interest with many distinct communities of identity, which should not be broken up.
2. Scarborough has a larger undercounted population than most communities, including newcomers for whom English is not their first language, residents living in precarious housing, refugee claimants, international students and temporary foreign workers. They are less likely to show up in census counts, especially in the middle of a pandemic. But they are part of our community too.
3. Scarborough embodies an ethnic and cultural mosaic unlike almost any other community in Canada. We want to encourage their integration into our political institutions and processes. Reducing our representation undermines this objective.
4. It's not fair that Scarborough grows and Toronto grows but loses representation, while other parts of Canada are not growing but are protected in this review process.

Thank you for the opportunity to provide these closing comments. We hope the Commission has heard Scarborough loudly and clearly, including our local political leaders who have made the same comments and others in their own submissions.

Larry Whatmore, President
Scarborough Community Renewal Organization
https://scro.ca/