Comment 7 – comments and feedback

Shailene Panylo

At present, the City of Oshawa is divided up into the ridings of Oshawa [that part of the City of Oshawa lying southerly of Taunton Road West and Taunton Road East, with Townline and Thornton Road being arterial East/West dividers] and Durham [that part of the City of Oshawa lying northerly of Taunton Road West and Taunton Road East].

I ran federally in both 2019 and 2021, and can speak on the confusion and difficulty these existing riding boundaries made for voters on the ground. Residents of Oshawa who lived north of Taunton Road didn't understand that they were not included in Oshawa, but were rather combined with Courtice and Bowmanville voters, which are two separate municipalities contained within Clarington.

If we compare the municipal boundaries for the City of Oshawa this utilizes Townline Road as the Eastern Boundary, Coates Road East and West as the Northern Boundaries, a boundary that falls just west of Stevenson Road North but realigns with Boundary Road as the West border, and the lakefront as the Southern border. Though not perfect, it is a much easier to navigate rectangle-ish layout that compliments the surrounding municipality's borders.

So now, a quick look at numbers. Note that all values will came directly from Statistics Canada's '2021 Census of Population geographic summary' with reference to each municipality's individual Census division profile. Oshawa has a population of 175, 383 people as of 2021, based on the Census data released in August 2022. This is a 10% population change from 2016 to 2021, which is significant. This is greater than Whitby (7.9%), comparative to Clarington (10.2) though our population overall is larger , Ajax (5.8) though our population overall is larger, and Pickering (8.1) with our overall population being almost double theirs. We have a population density of 1,203.6 people per square kilometre, which is also greater than Whitby (944.1), Clarington (166), slightly smaller than Ajax (1900.6), and Pickering (429.2).

If we look at the Regional Municipality of Durham, which includes 7 municipalities including those listed above, there is a population of 696, 992 according to the 2021 Census data. There is a population percentage change rate of 7.9%, and a population density per square kilometre of 276.5. This means that the municipality of Oshawa alone accounts for roughly 25% of the entire Region's population, and has seen the greatest growth over the past few years. This is a significant point to make as it should have been taken into greater consideration during this proposal process.

Currently, as mentioned, Oshawa is split into two ridings. The proposal from this Commission is effectively trying to divide Oshawa up into 4 different ridings. This includes Oshawa, Whitby, Bowmanville - Oshawa North, and Lake Simcoe-Uxbridge. This is problematic, inaccessible, and will do a significant disservice to the residents of the municipality of Oshawa.

First, and perhaps most important, this will result in increased confusion during federal and provincial elections, as the province would likely follow-suit based on the federal boundaries. Confusion leads to lower voter turnout, and is a method of voter suppression when such a significant change is going to occur and split one city into four federal ridings. This is too significant an issue to be considered just a simple error, and raises genuine questions as to the true purposes of this division.

Second, Oshawa is growing at the fastest rate within the Region. Almost monthly there seems to be a newly-approved subdivision or apartment building, and with three post-secondary institutions in the City we are constantly welcoming new students and their families to our community. The City's rate of growth is larger than that of the entire Region, and that is not going to slow down anytime soon. If Oshawa in and of itself is going to outgrow the other ridings it has been spliced into, this is bad planning when the next revision won't occur for another 10 years.

Third, demographics. Demographically, we are welcoming more diverse, racialized, blended families into the City, with mixed housing types and an increase in apartment and condo buildings, 3-storey townhomes on smaller lots, congregate, and retirement living facilities to account for our ageing population. The gentrification that is occurring in the central and southern parts of the city, which are considered the riding of Oshawa, have also been occurring rapidly, with more apartment buildings and condos also springing up in the downtown area. On the issue of accessibility, we are also seeing a great shift in the languages spoken by residents, and would have a very difficult time supporting residents who must figure out which of the proposed 4 ridings they may fall into on where, when, and who they can vote for. Elections Canada already struggles to do this locally with Oshawa being split into only 2, I cannot imagine this would be an equitable practice when we take into consideration language barriers, varying economic situations, and racialized residents who already face barriers and discrimination when participating in electoral politics. Again, this is poor planning for now and will not hold up equitably or sustainably over the next ten years.

Finally, representation. Residents of the City of Oshawa who fall within the Oshawa riding can be represented federally by someone who is, ideally, from Oshawa and is focused on their concerns. Their salary comes from the people of Oshawa, and that is who they are accountable to. Residents of the City of Oshawa who fall within any of the other three ridings are not going to be treated the same; Members of Parliament in these ridings will focus on their voter majority, namely Whitby, Lake Simcoe-Uxbridge, and Bowmanville-Oshawa North. Not only that, but when municipalities are advocating for funding from federal and provincial governments, they do so with their residents in mind; that means that the MP for Whitby will have to advocate on behalf of a sliver of Oshawa at these tables, which isn't fair to those residents who will not get the same say and access to participate despite paying taxes to the City.

All in all, this proposal demonstrates a lack of understanding of the local landscape and growth patterns of the Region, especially Oshawa, despite us being one of the fastest growing cities in the province AND country.

Thus, with this context in mind, in addition to the actual social impact such a division would have on the city, I'd propose that the municipality of Oshawa be split into two ridings. This can be done in two ways, with the pros and cons listed below:

• East and West: Creating the ridings of Oshawa East and Oshawa West would allow for an equitable split between both the newly developed North (demographically more diverse, wealthier) with the gentrifying South (demographically older, higher concentration of those who are Caucuasian and/or of European descent, lower socioeconomic status groups). If the split were done geographically only, Ritson Road North and South would serve as the central boundary, though Simcoe Street North and South may actually be a better split when actual population is taken into consideration. I don't have that data at present, but would imagine the Commission does and can see the further sub breakdowns of Oshawa. This would help eliminate the chance that one of Oshawa's two MP's represents the more diverse, wealthier areas, and one representing the slightly less diverse, including lower socioeconomic population areas, so there can be better collaboration on improving the quality of life and support for all in the City. It would require both representatives to work across intersectional identities and experiences in order to represent constituents and secure votes, and also provides a division of the post-secondary institutions, retirement facilities, and new development areas in all parts of the City. The ridings would stretch North further to meet the municipal boundaries, but it also means that Oshawa would have two representatives for its very large population relative to the Region. Currently the Member of Parliament for Oshawa accounts for a population of 126, 764 residents, of which 100,987 are on the electors list. The riding of Durham consists of 130,872 people, with 111, 428 on the registered voters list. If Oshawa got close to a 50:50 split, this would mean each Member of Parliament would represent approximately 88,000 residents, which would continue to grow over the next 10 years. Based on our average population increase of 10%, this would have each of the two ridings approaching 97,000 by 2028, only 6 years from now. This is a better representative average of MP to constituents, more equitable in divisions of advocacy and tax dollars, and easier to navigate for voters and residents.
• North and Central: This would create the ridings of Oshawa North and Oshawa Centre, as opposed to Oshawa North and Oshawa South as the 'south' carries a negative implication locally when discussing "Poshawa" and "South Oshawa". That stigma could be overwritten with 'Centre' as opposed to South. This is perhaps a visually simpler split to do, but arguably less equitable since there are demographic and social differences that would greatly impact the representation of the two ridings. It would likely require the central boundary, which is currently Taunton Road, to be moved based on the developments happening North (and those occurring in the South) simultaneously, but with the North growing so much faster at present with more potential land, it would likely result in the boundary moving further North to support the population changes. While this was initially my preferred method, from an equity, accessibility, and diversity aspect, the social impact of a North/Central split wouldn't best serve the interests of newcomers to Oshawa, or those longtime central and south residents who may feel their needs are overshadowed by the North's rapid growth.

In conclusion, it is my hope that this proposal for Oshawa and the Region of Durham will be sincerely re-evaluated and amended so as not to exacerbate an already difficult to navigate, inaccessible, inequitable division of our cities and towns into ridings. Thank you for your time and consideration.