Comment 96 – comments and feedback

Wendy Burton

I am writing as a resident of Oakville to urge the Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario to adjust the proposed riding boundaries for the Town of Oakville and to do so in a manner that more closely adheres to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, especially at Section 15. The boundaries should be adjusted for three reasons:

1. The population of Oakville justifies two dedicated ridings within the boundaries of Oakville.
2. The spreading of Oakville's representation over the proposed three ridings ignores historical patterns of representation.
3. The proposed three ridings ignore long-standing communities of interest, making effective representation and governance at a time of intergovernmental partnerships difficult for the elected officials involved at the federal, provincial and municipal levels.

Population

According to the 2021 census, Oakville's population is 213,309. Dividing this number by the current electoral quota of 116,590 (https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/on/med/aug1922_e.aspx) yields 1.8, that is, one full-size riding plus one riding that is within 20% of full-size. The Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act permits departures from the electoral quota of up to 25%.

The Commission need not be concerned that Oakville would have more than its fair share of representation for very long, as the town is growing rapidly, like most of the Greater Toronto Area. Indeed, the Town estimates the current population at 225,000 (https://invest.oakville.ca/data.html). This number means that the second riding in Oakville is likely already within 10% of the ideal electoral quota. By the time the new boundaries are used in a federal or provincial election, Oakville will probably have a population equal to two full ridings.

Historical Patterns

The historical pattern is for Oakville to be divided horizontally into two ridings: an older and fairly stable riding along the Lake Ontario border, and a younger, faster-growing riding in the north part of town. The interests of older areas and newer areas were well-understood with this kind of division, which the Commission might consider. In doing so, it would make sense to make the northerly riding smaller, since more of the growth is expected to occur there, particularly over the next 10 years.

Alternatively, dividing the town in half vertically could have the virtue of making both ridings of equal size, with both sharing the concerns of both older and newer neighbourhoods.

Communities of Interest

The proposals join parts of Oakville with pieces of other municipalities:

• Oakville-Lakeshore would include a small piece of eastern Burlington.
• Oakville North would also include a piece of eastern Burlington.
• Georgetown-Milton East would include the fastest-growing part of Oakville with slower-growing areas within Halton region. The residents of Oakville in this riding would form a minority in this riding, which cobbles together bits of three municipalities.

In all three ridings, there would be minority populations — from Burlington in the first two and from Oakville in the third — whose voices would have difficulty being heard. The MPs and MPPs from these new ridings would have multiple mayors and councils to work with. Prioritizing the infrastructure and other needs of these areas would be a nightmare.

The four municipalities involved — Oakville, Burlington, Milton and Georgetown — each have long histories, strong senses of place, and distinct political cultures. For instance, Oakville has a long tradition of active residents' associations that does not exist in the other areas to the same extent. Oakville also thinks of itself as a "town," while Burlington embraces being a "city." The four cities have different service standards, for example, in regards to transit. More than once, these municipalities have resisted being amalgamated into a city of Halton.

The goal of redistricting is to produce fair and effective representation for residents. The current proposal does neither. Moreover, in dealing with representation in a manner that is so contrary to the relevant statute, it is likely to engender confusion and cynicism among residents and further depress the already-declining voter turnout.

I urge the Commission to — literally — go back to the drawing board.

Sincerely,

Wendy Burton, PhD

Lecturer in Politics & Public Administration

Toronto Metropolitan University