Comment 30 – comments and feedback

Janice Mellary

I am writing to voice my concern with the proposed changes to the Federal Electoral Boundaries for my address. It is my understanding that under the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, the Commission's main aim in redrawing the boundaries is to divide the province into 122 electoral districts that are as close to the electoral quota as reasonably possible, while taking into consideration communities of interest or identity, and historic and geographic factors. The proposal is to reflect Ontario's increase in population as captured in the 2021 Census and in Ontario, the quota for each electoral district is 116,590 which is 14,223,942 divided by 122.

I live in the community of Harvest Hills in East Gwillimbury which is currently part of the Newmarket—Aurora Electoral District. East Gwillimbury currently is part of two Electoral district profiles, York—Simcoe with the exception of the part lying southerly of Green Lane West and Green Lane East and westerly of Highway 404 which is part of the Newmarket—Aurora Electoral District. Harvest Hills lies in the exception area currently.

I believe Harvest Hills should remain in the Newmarket—Aurora Electoral District.

Historic

I reviewed the East Gwillimbury Planning and Development Consolidated Official Plan 2031. This document indicates that the Town of East Gwillimbury was established in 1850 and is evolving from what was a mainly rural community to a thriving urban area surrounded by a large rural area. Hamlets and villages have grown to support the rural area. The communities of Holland Landing, River Drive Park, Sharon, Queensville, and Mount Albert each developed with its own rich history, unique charms and character. The Town of East Gwillimbury will grow to a resident population of 86,500 and will transition from the historic 'community of communities' to a connected urban area, surrounded by protected countryside. The challenge for the Town is to ensure this transition takes place in a manner that preserves the history, unique character and charm of the original villages.

East Gwillimbury documentation notes that Ward 1 is made up of Harvest Hills, Holland Landing and River Driver Park. I think it is important to bring to your attention the fact that Harvest Hills is a newer area and not part of the hamlets and villages and even in EG documentation it is considered its own entity. The Subdivision Agreement between Harvest Hills Development Corp and the Town of EG is dated April 6th, 2010.

I believe there is no need to attach Harvest Hills to the New Tecumseth— Bradford proposed electrical district for historic reasons and of course being part of the Newmarket—Aurora Electoral District up until this time supports this conclusion.

Equity in Population — Lets Look at the numbers

Redistribution of federal electoral boundaries is governed by the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, which sets out the Commission's mandate and rules to be applied in redrawing boundaries. The legislation mandates that each electoral district shall, as close as reasonably possible, correspond to the Provincial Electoral Quota. The Quota is the total population divided by the number of districts. In the case of Ontario, the quota for each electoral district is 116, 590 (14,223,942 divided by 122).

You note in your report that, "The proposed redistribution plan was compared against projected growth in population based on applying the Ontario Ministry of Finance's Ontario Population Projections (https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-population-projections#section-6) (published June 23, 2021) to ensure as much as possible that the populations of the new electoral districts would not vary substantially in size over the period of time to the next census." I believe that if this report was to subdivide the population increase expected in differing areas of York it may have been more beneficial.

A February 9, 2022 article in the Toronto Star notes that East Gwillimbury is the fastest growing municipality in Canada with a population jump of 44.4 per cent according to census data. The East Gwillimbury website notes that the Town of East Gwillimbury is a designated growth Municipality in Norther York Region, with a population expected to grow to 86,500 by 2031. So, by the next time the Commission reviews the boundaries the Town of East Gwillimbury is scheduled to increase in population by over 50,000. A quick look at the active applications in East Gwillimbury, just in ward one is very revealing.

A March 18, 2021 report, received by York Regional council contained a forecast for the population growth expected by 2051, and how much land it will take to accommodate the new larger population, and where it can be found. According to the report, York Region is expected to add another 800,000 residents, with Newmarket's population to grow from 90,000 to 110,000 by 2051. But by that year, the population of East Gwillimbury, currently about 31,100 is anticipated to be almost as large. Part of the reason for East Gwillimbury's explosion of growth is because it is one of three areas identified in York Region where land is being designated for future urban growth. The other two areas are in Vaughan and Markham. The report identified a total of 245 hectares in East Gwillimbury, just north of the boundary with Newmarket, for future urbanization as the population continues to grow over the next 30 years. Paul Bottomley, York Region manager of policy, research and forecasting is noted in a Newmarkettoday.ca article to relay that although Newmarket will grow consistently over the next 30 years, it will grow at a much slower pace than it has been for the past 20 years. In contrast, communities such as East Gwillimbury, Georgina, Vaughan and Whitchurch-Stouffville are expecting to see their growth reach new heights in the coming decade. Bottomley is quoted as stating, "Newmarket and Aurora have smaller land area and limited green fill (urban expansion) potential will show relative declines in their growth."

I conclude from this information that there will be a larger increase over the next decade in the population of the proposed Electoral District of New-Tecumseth-Bradford when compared to the proposed Electoral District of Newmarket-Aurora and therefore believe it is better to keep Harvest Hills in the Electoral District of Newmarket- Aurora for equity in population.

Looking at the Proposed Electoral District Redistribution Map I note that the population of the Proposed New Electoral District of Newmarket-Aurora is "118,666", (a deviation from quota- 2022 of 1.78%) the Proposed New Electoral District of Lake Simcoe-Uxbridge is "118,844" on the map and "118,867"  with a reported deviation of 1.95% in the report and the population of the Proposed New Electoral District of New Tecumseth-Bradford is "118,974" and in the report is "118,958", with a reported deviation from quota- 2022 of 2.03%.

According to an article in Newmarket today, Tony VanBynen noted that Harvest Hills community should be kept within Newmarket- Aurora, and at 2,100 people, it would not make too significant an impact.

Taking the Newmarket- Aurora population of 118,666 and adding the 2100 (Harvest Hills) would give a proposed population in the Proposed New Electoral District of Newmarket-Aurora + Harvest Hill's of 120766 and a deviation from quota -2022 of 3.58%. This is well within the required 25 per cent more, or 25 per cent less, of the Quota as required by the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act and the Commission's endeavours to limit the deviation from the Quota to no more than plus or minus 10 per cent.

So, to be clear it would appear that there would be more equity in population over the decade if Harvest Hill was to remain in the Newmarket-Aurora Electoral District.

Geographic Features

I would urge you to look at a map of housing as depicted on Google maps or Realtor.ca so that you can see the location of Harvest Hills and the lack of connection that our subdivision has with any parts of the electoral district that is being proposed. Our ties are with Newmarket where we work, shop, volunteer, hike and where our children attend school. Our hydro supplier is Newmarket Hydro. Our needs are best represented by our community, that community is Newmarket.

The Supreme Court of Canada in the leading case, Reference Re Provincial Electoral Boundaries (Sask), [1991] 2 S.C.R. 158, concluded that the right to vote enshrined in s. 3 of the Charter is not equality of voting power per se but the right to 'effective representation'. Effective representation entails voter parity as the primary concern, but deviations are permitted for reasons such as geography, community history, community interests and minority representation in order to effectively represent the diversity of our social mosaic. The Court noted that the right of a Commission to depart from voter parity is circumscribed by the reasons set forth in the Act and only to the extent that the special circumstances properly permit.

I believe that Harvest Hill's effective representation is better supported by continuing to being part of the Electoral District of Newmarket-Aurora.

Sincerely,

Janice Mellary