Details of the Proposed Redistribution Plan – Part A – Geographic pieces in which the number of districts has changed – Ontario

Northern Ontario

There was only modest population growth in Northern Ontario over the past decade.

The population of Northern Ontario grew by 2.8%, from 831,984 in 2011 to 855,138 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 11.2% in the same period.

The populations and deviations from the Quota for the 10 existing electoral districts in Northern Ontario are shown in Table 1A. These districts have an average 2021 population of 85,513—a figure that is 26.7% below the Quota of 116,590. While Kenora was deemed an extraordinary circumstances district in the 2012 electoral map, there are presently five additional districts with populations that fall more than 25 per cent below the 2022 Quota.

Table 1A – Northern Ontario Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population – 2011	Deviation from Quota – 2012	Population – 2021	Deviation from Quota – 2022
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	79,801	-24.87%	80,310	-31.12%
Kenora (Extraordinary Circumstance)	55,977	-47.30%	64,261	-44.88%
Nickel Belt	90,962	-14.36%	94,947	-18.56%
Nipissing—Timiskaming	90,996	-14.33%	89,781	-22.99%
Parry Sound—Muskoka	91,233	-14.10%	104,494	-10.37%
Sault Ste. Marie	82,052	-22.75%	79,331	-31.96%
Sudbury	92,048	-13.34%	95,537	-18.06%
Thunder Bay—Rainy River	82,984	-21.87%	82,357	-29.36%
Thunder Bay—Superior North	82,827	-22.02%	83,325	-28.53%
Timmins—James Bay	83,104	-21.76%	80,785	-30.71%
Average	83,198	-21.67%	85,513	-26.65%
Range (most populous to least populous)	36,071	33.96 pp	40,233	34.51 pp
Average – Excluding Extraordinary Circumstance	86,223	-18.82%	87,874	-24.63%
Range – Excluding Extraordinary Circumstance	12,247	11.53 pp	25,163	21.59 pp

pp = percentage points

Given these extreme disparities from population equality and the distinctive challenges of representation in the North, the Commission discussed at great length the meaning of 'effective representation' and the challenges of balancing the considerations set forth under the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act.

The Commission noted that in 2016 the province of Ontario established the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission to make recommendations regarding the creation of at least one, and no more than two, new provincial electoral districts from the geography of the current provincial electoral districts of Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay.

This Commission further noted the distinctions between its own mandate as set out in the rules prescribed by the federal Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act and the legislative mandate of the Ontario Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission. Our Commission is constrained by its mandate and by the smaller number of districts to be created.

The census population data and mandate respecting voter parity revealed the potential for a reduction of two electoral districts in Northern Ontario. The Commission considered this possibility but decided to propose a reduction of one district, thus resulting in nine districts in total, including one extraordinary circumstances district. The Commission acknowledged that most of the eight non-extraordinary districts in Northern Ontario have significant deviations from the Quota (see Table 1B). However, the Commission concluded that any further reduction in the number of districts in the North would imperil the principle of effective representation in this part of the province, considering its widely dispersed population and communities of interest.

The proposed redistribution plan establishes one extraordinary circumstances district which encompasses and reflects the exceptional nature of the far North—an isolated and geographically substantial area, in large part not accessible by road, in which the majority of the population is Indigenous. While geographically vast (520,307 square kilometers), the proposed district of Kiiwetinoong—Mushkegowuk would not be the largest in Canada and, furthermore, is accessible via regular flight routes (from the Timmins hub along the James Bay coast and from hubs in Thunder Bay, Sioux Lookout and Winnipeg serving the western portion).

The eight other proposed electoral districts in Northern Ontario are of manageable geographic size, and accessible via the well-established roadway network anchored by Highways 11 and 17. Their boundaries have also been redrawn to reduce the large deviations from the Quota.

As previously noted, where a community of Francophones represented a substantial percentage of a riding, the proposed boundaries ensure that their representation is not diluted or diminished within this redistribution plan.

In addition to the proposed riding name of Kiiwetinoong—Mushkegowuk, other reconfigured districts have been renamed to reflect the communities comprising them.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 1B.

Table 1B – Northern Ontario Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population – 2021	Deviation from Quota – 2022
Cochrane—Timmins—Timiskaming	107,092	-8.15%
Kenora—Thunder Bay—Rainy River	101,097	-13.29%
Kiiwetinoong—Mushkegowuk (Extraordinary Circumstance)	36,325	-68.84%
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	99,268	-14.86%
Nipissing	99,149	-14.96%
Parry Sound—Muskoka	102,255	-12.30%
Sault Ste. Marie	97,299	-16.55%
Sudbury	113,618	-2.55%
Thunder Bay—Superior North	99,035	-15.06%
Average	95,015	-18.51%
Range (most populous to least populous)	77,293	66.29 pp
Average – Excluding Extraordinary Circumstance	102,352	-12.22%
Range – Excluding Extraordinary Circumstance	16,319	14.00 pp

pp = percentage points

City of Toronto

The population of Toronto grew by 6.9%, from 2,615,060 in 2011 to 2,794,356 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 11.7% in the same period.

The existing 25 electoral districts in Toronto would have an average 2021 population of 111,774—a figure that falls 4.1% below the Quota of 116,590. Furthermore, as indicated by the range of deviations relative to the 2022 Quota (40.3 percentage points), there are substantial disparities in the population size of districts across the City of Toronto. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 2A.

Table 2A – City of Toronto Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Beaches—East York	107,084	0.82%	109,359	-6.20%
Davenport	102,360	-3.63%	105,946	-9.13%
Don Valley East	93,007	-12.43%	95,039	-18.48%
Don Valley North	103,073	-2.96%	113,663	-2.51%
Don Valley West	99,820	-6.02%	101,959	-12.55%
Eglinton—Lawrence	113,150	6.53%	115,832	-0.65%
Etobicoke Centre	114,910	8.19%	118,483	1.62%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	115,437	8.68%	141,751	21.58%
Etobicoke North	117,601	10.72%	116,003	-0.50%
Humber River—Black Creek	108,198	1.87%	111,593	-4.29%
Parkdale—High Park	105,103	-1.05%	106,750	-8.44%
Scarborough—Agincourt	104,499	-1.61%	104,423	-10.44%
Scarborough Centre	108,826	2.46%	113,104	-2.99%
Scarborough—Guildwood	101,914	-4.05%	103,449	-11.27%
Scarborough North	101,080	-4.83%	94,717	-18.76%
Scarborough—Rouge Park	102,646	-3.36%	102,254	-12.30%
Scarborough Southwest	106,733	0.49%	111,994	-3.94%
Spadina—Fort York	82,480	-22.35%	136,213	16.83%
Toronto Centre	93,971	-11.53%	119,901	2.84%
Toronto—Danforth	104,017	-2.07%	105,472	-9.54%
Toronto—St. Paul's	103,983	-2.10%	116,953	0.31%
University—Rosedale	98,605	-7.16%	106,216	-8.90%
Willowdale	109,680	3.26%	118,218	1.40%
York Centre	100,277	-5.59%	108,307	-7.10%
York South—Weston	116,606	9.78%	116,757	0.14%
Average	104,602	-1.52%	111,774	-4.13%
Range (most populous to least populous)	35,121	33.07 pp	47,034	40.34 pp

pp = percentage points

The Commission noted that the overrepresentation in Toronto has emerged due to uneven population growth between Toronto and surrounding areas, which is expected to continue or increase in the future.

As a result, the Commission concluded that the districts in Toronto be reduced by one.

This reduction, together with the obligation to address the wide population disparities of electoral districts within the City of Toronto, has required shifting many boundaries. The most significant proposed changes fall in the eastern portion of the City of Toronto, particularly around Scarborough, where deviations below the Quota were most pronounced. This area, broadly described as lying to the east of Victoria Park Avenue, has been reduced from six districts to five.

Proposed new electoral boundaries are formed by City of Toronto boundaries and, for the most part, follow the contours of major highways, roads, rail lines, ravines, and rivers.

Several district names have been changed to better describe their locations or reflect the neighbourhoods and communities that comprise these reconfigured districts.

With 24 districts, the average population in each district becomes 116,432. The maximum deviation from the Quota is 6%. The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 2B.

Table 2B – City of Toronto Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Bayview—Finch	110,908	-4.87%
Black Creek	117,740	0.99%
Davenport	116,728	0.12%
Don Valley East	115,456	-0.97%
Don Valley North	113,537	-2.62%
Don Valley West	114,229	-2.03%
Eglinton—Lawrence	116,139	-0.39%
Etobicoke Centre	120,157	3.06%
Etobicoke Lakeshore	114,714	-1.61%
Etobicoke North	121,107	3.87%
Humber	122,220	4.83%
Scarborough Centre	115,260	-1.14%
Scarborough—Guildwood	118,754	1.86%
Scarborough Northwest	109,568	-6.02%
Scarborough—Rouge Park	111,713	-4.18%
Scarborough Southwest	121,947	4.59%
Spadina—Harbourfront	119,497	2.49%
St. Clair—Mount Pleasant	119,935	2.87%
Taiaiako'n—High Park	119,421	2.43%
The Beaches—East York	111,805	-4.10%
Toronto Centre	121,703	4.39%
Toronto—Danforth	112,119	-3.83%
University—Rosedale	117,119	0.45%
York Centre	112,580	-3.44%
Average	116,432	-0.14%
Range (most populous to least populous)	12,652	10.85 pp

pp = percentage points

Halton, Guelph, and Wellington

The population of Halton, Guelph, and Wellington grew by 18.4%, from 680,234 in 2011 to 805,299 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.2% in the same period.

The six electoral districts in this geographic piece would have an average 2021 population of 134,217 and an average deviation of 15.1% above the Quota. The existing districts of Oakville North—Burlington, Guelph and Milton are at the highest end for population size across the province, with populations that are, respectively, 27.7%, 23.3% and 17.5% above the Quota. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 3A.

Table 3A – Halton, Guelph, and Wellington Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Burlington	120,569	13.52%	125,435	7.59%
Guelph	121,688	14.57%	143,740	23.29%
Milton	88,065	-17.09%	136,993	17.50%
Oakville	119,649	12.65%	122,322	4.92%
Oakville North—Burlington	114,378	7.69%	148,936	27.74%
Wellington—Halton Hills	115,885	9.11%	127,873	9.68%
Average	113,372	6.74%	134,217	15.12%
Range (most populous to least populous)	33,623	31.66 pp	26,614	22.82 pp

pp = percentage points

The Commission proposes a new electoral district to resolve the underrepresentation in these districts, considering the current population and anticipated population growth.

This proposal sees five districts in the southernmost part of this geographic piece, where there were previously four. These southernmost districts are now much more balanced in population size and correspond more closely with the boundaries of Halton Region. In the northern part of this geographic piece, the revised district of Wellington—Halton picks up portions of Guelph, thus bringing the population of the district of Guelph much closer to the provincial quotient.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 3B.

Table 3B – Halton, Guelph, and Wellington Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Burlington Lakeshore	116,984	0.34%
Burlington—Milton West	114,218	-2.03%
Georgetown—Milton East	118,559	1.69%
Guelph	118,686	1.80%
Oakville Lakeshore	114,917	-1.43%
Oakville North	113,574	-2.59%
Wellington—Halton	111,155	-4.66%
Average	115,442	-0.98%
Range (most populous to least populous)	7,531	6.46 pp

pp = percentage points

Brampton, Caledon, and Dufferin

Brampton is another area that has seen considerable population growth over the past decade. The City of Brampton itself, with a current population of 656,480, has risen by 25.3% since 2011, with density spreading northward into Caledon and Dufferin County. This is the largest population growth of any Ontario city with a population over 100,000. Taken as a geographic piece, the population of Brampton, Caledon, and Dufferin grew by 24.8%, from 640,247 in 2011 to 799,318 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 9.9% in the same period.

The existing six electoral districts in this geographic piece would have an average 2021 population of 133,220, which falls 14.3% above the Quota. Brampton West (with 162,353 residents) currently has the highest population of all districts in the province, while Dufferin—Caledon also falls near the top. As indicated by the deviation range (49.6 percentage points) relative to the 2022 Quota, there are substantial disparities in population size between districts, particularly between the adjacent ridings of Brampton West and Brampton Centre. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 4A.

Table 4A – Brampton, Caledon, and Dufferin Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Brampton Centre	103,122	-2.91%	104,557	-10.32%
Brampton East	99,712	-6.12%	131,677	12.94%
Brampton North	111,951	5.40%	125,141	7.33%
Brampton South	107,364	1.08%	132,752	13.86%
Brampton West	101,757	-4.20%	162,353	39.25%
Dufferin—Caledon	116,341	9.53%	142,838	22.51%
Average	106,708	0.46%	133,220	14.26%
Range (most populous to least populous)	16,629	15.65 pp	57,796	49.57 pp

pp = percentage points

Given its population size and anticipated growth, the Commission concluded that this area requires a new electoral district.

The proposed addition of a seventh district, together with the obligation to address the wide population disparities described above, requires significant boundary reconfigurations, especially of those districts that lay within the City of Brampton.

These proposed district boundaries all align with historical boundaries between the City of Brampton and the City of Mississauga (to the south), the Regional Municipality of Halton (to the west), and the City of Vaughan and the Township of King (to the east). However, the proposed district of Brampton—Mayfield West extends northward beyond the municipal boundary to pick up a portion of the neighbouring district of Dufferin—Caledon. These revised boundaries thus reduce the population of the Dufferin—Caledon district, drawing it closer to the Quota.

Pursuant to the proposed redistribution plan, these seven districts in this geographic piece all have comparable populations and manageable geographic size and respect as much as possible distinctive historical communities.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 4B.

Table 4B – Brampton, Caledon, and Dufferin Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Brampton Centre	114 422	-1.86%
Brampton—Chinguacousy	113,201	-2.91%
Brampton—Mayfield West	112,994	-3.08%
Brampton North	112,082	-3.87%
Brampton Southeast	114,952	-1.40%
Brampton Southwest	110,855	-4.92%
Dufferin—Caledon	119,767	2.72%
Average	114,039	-2.19%
Range (most populous to least populous)	8,912	7.64 pp

pp = percentage points

Central Ontario, Eastern Greater Toronto Area, & Northern Greater Toronto Area

We turn next to the broad region fanning north from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) towards Georgian Bay, Lake Simcoe, and Lake Scugog. The Commission proposes the addition of a single new electoral district, Lake Simcoe—Uxbridge, which lies at the geographic centre of this region and has implications cascading outward. We present this discussion in three geographic pieces, beginning with Central Ontario, moving down to Northern GTA, then across to Eastern GTA.

Central Ontario

The population of Central Ontario grew by 17.9%, from 625,530 in 2011 to 737,495 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.3% in the same period.

The existing six electoral districts in Central Ontario have an average 2021 population of 122,916 and fall 5.4% above the Quota. As indicated by the deviation range (38.5 percentage points), there are substantial disparities in the population size of districts. Simcoe—Grey has grown especially large, whereas other districts fall reasonably close to the 2022 Quota.

The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 5A.

Table 5A – Central Ontario Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Barrie—Innisfil	101,584	-4.36%	120,378	3.25%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	97,876	-7.85%	106,871	-8.34%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	106,475	0.25%	113,348	-2.78%
Simcoe—Grey	116,307	9.50%	151,784	30.19%
Simcoe North	108,672	2.31%	120,656	3.49%
York—Simcoe	94,616	-10.92%	124,458	6.75%
Average	104,255	-1.85%	122,916	5.43%
Range (most populous to least populous)	21,691	20.42 pp	44,913	38.53 pp

pp = percentage points

The proposed new district of Lake Simcoe—Uxbridge encompasses a portion of the existing district of York—Simcoe (as shown in the illustration above), plus portions of the existing districts of Markham—Stouffville (shown below in Northern GTA), and Pickering—Uxbridge and Durham (shown below in Eastern GTA).

In addition to the new district, boundaries are redrawn to balance the populations of the other six districts. In particular, the southern boundary of the existing district of Simcoe—Grey is shifted north and this district is renamed Collingwood—Blue Mountains. The growing community of New Tecumseth now falls in a newly named district, NEW Tecumseth—Bradford.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 5B.

Table 5B – Central Ontario Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Barrie—Innisfil	120,378	3.25%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	115,495	-0.94%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	118,588	1.71%
Collingwood—Blue Mountains	116,511	-0.07%
Lake Simcoe—Uxbridge (New District)	118,867	1.95%
New Tecumseth—Bradford	118,958	2.03%
Penetanguishene—Couchiching	112,022	-3.92%
Average	117,260	0.57%
Range (most populous to least populous)	8,356	7.17 pp

pp = percentage points

Northern Greater Toronto Area

The population of Northern GTA grew by 13%, from 965,985 in 2011 to 1,091,756 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.5% in the same period.

The existing nine electoral districts in Northern GTA would have an average 2021 population of 121,306 and an average deviation of 4% from the Quota. The range between the least and most populous districts would be 43.1 percentage points. As shown in Table 6A below, there are wide population disparities among the electoral districts within this geographic piece.

Table 6A – Northern GTA Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	106,064	-0.14%	118,883	1.97%
King—Vaughan	109,235	2.84%	147,695	26.68%
Markham—Stouffville	109,780	3.36%	135,944	16.60%
Markham—Thornhill	102,221	-3.76%	97,510	-16.37%
Markham—Unionville	104,693	-1.43%	128,308	10.05%
Newmarket—Aurora	109,457	3.05%	127,134	9.04%
Richmond Hill	108,658	2.30%	114,180	-2.07%
Thornhill	110,427	3.97%	115,292	-1.11%
Vaughan—Woodbridge	105,450	-0.72%	106,810	-8.39%
Average	107,332	1.05%	121,306	4.04%
Range (most populous to least populous)	8,206	7.73 pp	50,185	43.05 pp

pp = percentage points

The Commission noted that significant changes are required to ensure voter parity as much as reasonably possible. As shown in the illustrations, the new district of Lake Simcoe—Uxbridge encompasses all of the northern portion of the current Markham—Stouffville district. In the southeast corner of this geographic piece, the boundaries of the adjacent districts of Markham—Stouffville, Markham—Thornhill and Markham—Unionville are adjusted to bring those districts closer to population parity. Adjustments are also proposed to address the fast-growing population in the existing district of King—Vaughan. The boundary between King—Vaughan and Vaughan—Woodbridge is shifted northward to balance the populations of these adjacent ridings.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 6B.

Table 6B – Northern GTA Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	114,676	-1.64%
King—Vaughan	116,118	-0.40%
Lake Simcoe—Uxbridge (New District)	118,867	1.95%
Markham—Stouffville	121,176	3.93%
Markham—Thornhill	123,400	5.84%
Markham—Unionville	122,401	4.98%
Newmarket—Aurora	118,666	1.78%
Richmond Hill South	118,679	1.79%
Vaughan—Thornhill	119,771	2.73%
Vaughan—Woodbridge	115,957	-0.54%
Average	118,971	2.04%
Range (most populous to least populous)	8,724	7.48 pp

pp = percentage points

Eastern Greater Toronto Area

The population of Eastern GTA grew by 14.6%, from 582,132 in 2011 to 667,211 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.5% in the same period.

The existing five electoral districts in Eastern GTA would have an average 2021 population of 133,442 and an average deviation of 14.5% from the Quota. The absolute range between the least and most populous districts would be 25.3 percentage points. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 7A.

Table 7A – Eastern GTA Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Ajax	109,600	3.19%	126,666	8.64%
Durham	115,395	8.64%	150,235	28.86%
Oshawa	125,771	18.41%	131,067	12.42%
Pickering—Uxbridge	109,344	2.95%	120,742	3.56%
Whitby	122,022	14.88%	138,501	18.79%
Average	116,426	9.61%	133,442	14.45%
Range (most populous to least populous)	16,427	15.46 pp	29,493	25.30 pp

pp = percentage points

Population growth over the past decade in the Durham Region necessitates a number of significant boundary adjustments in this geographic piece.

The new district of Lake Simcoe—Uxbridge, as seen in the illustration, incorporates the northern portions of the existing districts of Pickering—Uxbridge and Durham. As a result of this change and of population growth in the City of Whitby (and the community of Brooklin in particular), the Commission proposes to place Brooklin in the district of Pickering—Brooklin. The area constituting the southern portion of the current district of Durham is renamed Bowmanville—Oshawa North.

The adjusted districts Oshawa and Whitby are now more compact in size, with populations much closer to the Quota. The boundaries of Ajax are unchanged.

Table 7B – Eastern GTA Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Ajax	126,666	8.64%
Bowmanville—Oshawa North	123,036	5.53%
Lake Simcoe—Uxbridge (New District)	118,867	1.95%
Oshawa	126,499	8.50%
Pickering—Brooklin	122,430	5.01%
Whitby	120,078	2.99%
Average	122,929	5.44%
Range (most populous to least populous)	7,799	6.69 pp

pp = percentage points