Details of the Proposed Redistribution Plan – Part B – Geographic Pieces in the Balance of the Province, from East to West – Ontario

Eastern Ontario

The population of Eastern Ontario grew by 7.3%, from 624,416 in 2011 to 669,976 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.8% in the same period.

The existing six electoral districts in Eastern Ontario would have an average 2021 population of 111,663 and an average deviation of -4.2% from the Quota. The absolute range between the least and most populous districts would be 18.9 percentage points. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 8A.

Table 8A – Eastern Ontario Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	106,240	0.02%	116,463	-0.11%
Kingston and the Islands	116,996	10.15%	126,106	8.16%
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston	98,424	-7.33%	111,424	-4.43%
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes	99,306	-6.50%	104,070	-10.74%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	102,537	-3.46%	107,420	-7.87%
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	100,913	-4.99%	104,493	-10.38%
Average	104,069	-2.02%	111,663	-4.23%
Range (most populous to least populous)	18,572	17.48 pp	22,036	18.90 pp

pp = percentage points

Proposed changes to boundaries in this geographic piece result from the goal of achieving population equality; however, these changes are relatively minor in comparison with those of other parts of the province. The Commission endeavoured to maintain districts of manageable size and respect communities of interest.

The majority representation of the Francophone community in the existing district of Glengarry—Prescott—Russell is maintained in the proposed district of Prescott—Russell.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 8B.

Table 8B – Eastern Ontario Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke	116,900	0.27%
Gananoque—Brockville—Prescott	113,266	-2.85%
Kingston and the Islands	126,106	8.16%
Lanark—Frontenac	109,784	-5.84%
Prescott—Russell	111,163	-4.65%
Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry	114,637	-1.68%
Average	115,309	-1.10%
Range (most populous to least populous)	16,322	14.00 pp

pp = percentage points

Ottawa

The population of the Ottawa geographic piece grew by 15.4%, from 872,783 in 2011 to 1,006,769 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.3% in the same period.

The existing eight electoral districts in the Ottawa geographic piece would have an average 2021 population of 125,846 and an average deviation of 7.9% from the Quota. The absolute range between the least and most populous districts would be 19.7 percentage points. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 9A.

Table 9A – Ottawa Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Carleton	89,522	-15.72%	131,375	12.68%
Kanata—Carleton	100,846	-5.05%	116,651	0.05%
Nepean	104,775	-1.35%	132,769	13.88%
Orléans	119,247	12.27%	139,309	19.49%
Ottawa Centre	113,619	6.97%	126,360	8.38%
Ottawa South	121,894	14.76%	125,090	7.29%
Ottawa—Vanier	110,999	4.51%	118,806	1.90%
Ottawa West—Nepean	111,881	5.34%	116,409	-0.16%
Average	109,098	2.72%	125,846	7.94%
Range (most populous to least populous)	32,372	30.48 pp	22,900	19.65 pp

pp = percentage points

Significant redrawing was required, given the large deviations from the Quota in the suburban area comprised of the existing districts of Carleton, Nepean, and Orléans. The Commission noted that these three districts are underrepresented with populations that are, respectively, 12.7%, 13.9% and 19.5% above the Quota. The proposed boundary changes bring these districts closer to the Quota.

The most notable change concerns Orléans, where an adjustment to the southern boundary, pushing it up towards the Ottawa River, will bring its population much closer to parity with surrounding districts.

Population growth in the existing districts of Nepean and Carleton necessitates further boundary changes that in turn impact the existing district of Kanata—Carleton. The Commission proposes shifting the boundaries of the proposed district of Kanata to the east to address these disparities.

The Commission has endeavoured to respect the interests of the Francophone community by ensuring that their representation in the proposed districts of Orléans, Ottawa—Vanier and Ottawa South are not diluted.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 9B.

Table 9B – Ottawa Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Carleton	119,737	2.70%
Kanata	121,458	4.18%
Nepean	122,229	4.84%
Orléans	126,662	8.64%
Ottawa Centre	118,950	2.02%
Ottawa South	125,075	7.28%
Ottawa—Vanier	127,255	9.15%
Ottawa West—Nepean	123,533	5.96%
Average	123,112	5.60%
Range (most populous to least populous)	8,305	7.13 pp

pp = percentage points

Central East Ontario

The population of Central East Ontario grew by 9%, from 535,322 in 2011 to 583,287 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.8% in the same period.

The existing five electoral districts in Central East Ontario would have an average 2021 population of 116,657 and an average deviation of 0.1% from the Quota. The absolute range between the least and most populous districts would be 21.3 percentage points. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 10A.

Table 10A – Central East Ontario Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Bay of Quinte	109,488	3.08%	116,016	-0.49%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	110,217	3.77%	122,401	4.98%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington	92,513	-12.90%	100,636	-13.68%
Northumberland—Peterborough South	107,840	1.53%	118,756	1.86%
Peterborough—Kawartha	115,264	8.52%	125,478	7.62%
Average	107,064	0.80%	116,657	0.06%
Range (most populous to least populous)	22,751	21.42 pp	24,842	21.30 pp

pp = percentage points

The Commission shifted boundaries to balance the population of the districts across this geographic piece. This affects most significantly the existing district of Hastings—Lennox and Addington.

The Commission also proposes shifting the boundaries of the existing district of Peterborough—Kawartha southward to ensure that the reserves of the Alderville First Nation lie within the same district and to recognize the established connection of the Township of Otonabee-South Monaghan with Peterborough. This district is renamed as Peterborough.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 10B.

Table 10B – Central East Ontario Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Bay of Quinte	116,016	-0.49%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	120,254	3.14%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga	111,331	-4.51%
Northumberland	114,335	-1.93%
Peterborough	121,336	4.07%
Average	116,654	0.06%
Range (most populous to least populous)	10,005	8.58 pp

pp = percentage points

Mississauga

The population of Mississauga has remained relatively constant, with population growth of 0.6%, from 713,443 in 2011 to 717,961 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 11.3% in the same period.

The existing six electoral districts in Mississauga would have an average 2021 population of 119,660 and an average deviation of 2.6% from the Quota. The absolute range between the least and most populous districts would be 9.5 percentage points. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 11A.

Table 11A – Mississauga Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Mississauga Centre	118,756	11.81%	127,377	9.25%
Mississauga East—Cooksville	121,792	14.67%	116,346	-0.21%
Mississauga—Erin Mills	117,199	10.34%	123,371	5.82%
Mississauga—Lakeshore	118,893	11.94%	117,095	0.43%
Mississauga—Malton	118,046	11.14%	116,908	0.27%
Mississauga—Streetsville	118,757	11.81%	116,864	0.24%
Average	118,907	11.95%	119,660	2.63%
Range (most populous to least populous)	4,593	4.33 pp	11,031	9.46 pp

pp = percentage points

The Commission proposes minor boundary adjustments to balance the populations of the six existing districts in Mississauga. These districts remain within the municipal boundaries of the City of Mississauga, and their boundaries align with major roads, the Credit River, and the Canadian Pacific rail line.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 11B.

Table 11B – Mississauga Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Mississauga Centre	119,975	2.90%
Mississauga East—Cooksville	120,196	3.09%
Missisauga—Erin Mills	119,526	2.52%
Mississauga Lakeshore	119,936	2.87%
Mississauga—Malton	119,741	2.70%
Mississauga—Meadowvale	118,587	1.71%
Average	119,660	2.63%
Range (most populous to least populous)	1,609	1.38 pp

pp = percentage points

Hamilton and Niagara

The population of Hamilton and Niagara grew by 10.1%, from 951,295 in 2011 to 1,047,294 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.7% in the same period.

The existing nine electoral districts in this geographic piece would have an average 2021 population of 116,366, which falls just 0.2% below the Quota. However, the Commission noted the unacceptably high range of deviation (42.4 percentage points) between the least and most populous districts. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing districts are shown in Table 12A.

Table 12A – Hamilton and Niagara Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Flamborough—Glanbrook	97,081	-8.60%	125,692	7.81%
Hamilton Centre	101,932	-4.03%	106,439	-8.71%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	107,786	1.48%	112,028	-3.91%
Hamilton Mountain	103,615	-2.45%	107,629	-7.69%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	109,535	3.13%	117,565	0.84%
Niagara Centre	105,860	-0.33%	119,809	2.76%
Niagara Falls	128,357	20.85%	146,404	25.57%
Niagara West	86,533	-18.53%	96,946	-16.85%
St. Catharines	110,596	4.13%	114,782	-1.55%
Average	105,699	-0.48%	116,366	-0.19%
Range (most populous to least populous)	41,824	39.38 pp	49,458	42.42 pp

pp = percentage points

Within the Niagara Peninsula, the Commission noted unreasonable variations in the population size of the existing districts of Niagara Falls and Niagara West. Significant adjustments were required to achieve population equality, with resulting impacts on contiguous areas.

In the Hamilton area, the Commission made minor boundary adjustments to achieve voter parity. One resulting change was the inclusion of the urban portions of the Municipality of Grimsby within the newly named district of Hamilton—Stoney Creek—Grimsby Lakeshore. This is a consequence of changes that were necessary in the Niagara area.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 12B.

Table 12B – Hamilton and Niagara Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Flamborough—Glanbrook	114,701	-1.62%
Hamilton Centre	123,520	5.94%
Hamilton Mountain	115,634	-0.82%
Hamilton—Stoney Creek—Grimsby Lakeshore	121,709	4.39%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	120,551	3.40%
Niagara Falls	113,503	-2.65%
Niagara South	112,928	-3.14%
Niagara West	118,158	1.34%
St. Catharines	119,873	2.82%
Average	117,842	1.07%
Range (most populous to least populous)	10,592	9.08 pp

pp = percentage points

South Central Ontario

The population of South Central Ontario grew by 13.1%, from 857,968 in 2011 to 970,608 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.5% in the same period.

The existing eight electoral districts in South Central Ontario would have an average 2021 population of 121,326 and an average deviation of 4.1% from the Quota. The absolute range between the least and most populous districts would be 28.3 percentage points. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 13A.

Table 13A – South Central Ontario Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Brantford—Brant	132,443	24.69%	140,139	20.20%
Cambridge	111,693	5.16%	121,301	4.04%
Haldimand—Norfolk	108,051	1.73%	116,706	0.10%
Kitchener Centre	102,433	-3.56%	113,452	-2.69%
Kitchener—Conestoga	93,827	-11.66%	107,134	-8.11%
Kitchener South—Hespeler	97,673	-8.04%	119,851	2.80%
Oxford	108,656	2.30%	124,790	7.03%
Waterloo	103,192	-2.85%	127,235	9.13%
Average	107,246	0.97%	121,326	4.06%
Range (most populous to least populous)	38,616	36.35 pp	33,005	28.31 pp

pp = percentage points

The Commission noted the significant deviation from the Quota in the prior redistribution in the existing district of Brantford—Brant. To address this, the Commission has reduced the geographic size of this district and proposed it be renamed Brantford.

As a result, several communities have been re-assigned to surrounding districts to the west and south in order to balance populations. Notably, the community of Six Nations of the Grand River has been preserved but is now located within the district to the south, newly named as Haldimand—Norfolk—SIX Nations.

Additionally, in the interest of achieving voter parity, a series of minor boundary changes were made to balance populations in the districts surrounding Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge.

The community of Hespeler, south of the Speed River, has been added to the proposed district of Cambridge to better unify the City of Cambridge. The Township of North Dumfries has been shifted from the existing district of Cambridge and into the proposed district of Kitchener South—North Dumfries.

Several district names have been changed to better describe their locations or reflect communities of interest within the districts.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 13B.

Table 13B – South Central Ontario Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Brantford	118,167	1.35%
Cambridge	122,099	4.73%
Haldimand—Norfolk—Six Nations	122,813	5.34%
Kitchener Centre	114,595	-1.71%
Kitchener—Conestoga	114,856	-1.49%
Kitchener South—North Dumfries	114,179	-2.07%
Oxford—Brant	124,844	7.08%
Waterloo	121,436	4.16%
Average	119,124	2.17%
Range (most populous to least populous)	10,665	9.15 pp

pp = percentage points

Southwestern Ontario

The population of Southwestern Ontario grew by 11.1%, from 782,285 in 2011 to 869,137 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.6% in the same period.

The existing seven electoral districts in this geographic piece would have an average 2021 population of 124,162 and an average deviation of 6.5% from the Quota. The absolute range between the least and most populous districts would be 24.1 percentage points. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 14A.

Table 14A – Southwestern Ontario Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Elgin—Middlesex—London	110,109	3.67%	126,428	8.44%
Huron—Bruce	104,842	-1.29%	112,929	-3.14%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	105,919	-0.28%	111,242	-4.59%
London—Fanshawe	119,334	12.35%	127,068	8.99%
London North Centre	118,079	11.17%	138,255	18.58%
London West	119,090	12.12%	139,305	19.48%
Perth—Wellington	104,912	-1.23%	113,910	-2.30%
Average	111,755	5.22%	124,162	6.49%
Range (most populous to least populous)	14,492	13.64 pp	28,063	24.07 pp

pp = percentage points

The Commission noted that the three existing and largely urban districts within the City of London are underrepresented with populations that are 9%, 18.6% and 19.5% above the Quota. Consequently, considerable redrawing was required. Recognizing the urban growth in all directions, the boundaries of these three districts are reconfigured to better balance populations with adjacent and more rural districts.

Recognizing the development in the southern part of the City of London and the northern part of the City of St. Thomas, these areas are both included in the proposed district of London South—ST. Thomas.

In the more northern part of the City of London, the boundaries of London West and the newly named London Centre (the existing district of London North Centre) are modestly changed. The boundaries of the existing district of London—Fanshawe are shifted to the east, and this district is renamed London Northeast.

In the southern portion of this geographic piece, the newly named Elgin—Middlesex—Thames extends from Kent Bridge Road (County Road 15) in Chatham-Kent at its western edge and wraps around the City of London along the east. This district comprises portions of the existing districts of Elgin—Middlesex—London and Lambton—Kent—Middlesex.

In the northern portion of this geographic piece, the districts of Perth—Wellington and the newly named South Huron Shores (the existing district of Huron—Bruce) are largely unchanged.

Many of the districts in this piece are renamed to better describe their locations and reflect their communities of interest.

The new deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 14B.

Table 14B – Southwestern Ontario Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Elgin—Middlesex—Thames	117,082	0.42%
London Centre	123,531	5.95%
London Northeast	123,241	5.70%
London South—St. Thomas	120,208	3.10%
London West	121,199	3.95%
Perth—Wellington	117,974	1.19%
South Huron Shores	118,316	1.48%
Average	120,222	3.11%
Range (most populous to least populous)	6,449	5.53 pp

pp = percentage points

Southernmost Ontario

The population of the southernmost part of Ontario grew by 6.1%, from 573,137 in 2011 to 608,347 in 2021. The remainder of Ontario grew by 10.9% in the same period.

The existing five electoral districts in this geographic piece would have an average 2021 population of 121,669 and an average deviation of 4.4% above the Quota. As indicated by the deviation range (23.7 percentage points), there are substantial disparities in the population size of districts. The populations and deviations from the Quota for the existing electoral districts are shown in Table 15A.

Table 15A – Southernmost Ontario Existing Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2011	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2012	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Chatham-Kent—Leamington	111,866	5.32%	113,654	-2.52%
Essex	120,477	13.43%	134,656	15.50%
Sarnia—Lambton	106,293	0.07%	107,077	-8.16%
Windsor—Tecumseh	115,528	8.77%	122,798	5.32%
Windsor West	118,973	12.01%	130,162	11.64%
Average	114,627	7.92%	121,669	4.36%
Range (most populous to least populous)	14,184	13.36 pp	27,579	23.66 pp

pp = percentage points

In this area, the Commission aimed to reduce the significant population disparities among districts. This necessitates shifting the boundary of Essex westward to reduce its population size. The community of Kingsville is incorporated into the proposed district of Chatham-Kent—Leamington—Kingsville. The communities of Wallaceburg and Dresden and the Walpole Island First Nation are added to the proposed district of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong. The boundaries of the proposed districts of Windsor West and Windsor—Tecumseh have been adjusted to balance population equality.

The proposed boundary reconfiguration reduces the range of deviations in this area to seven percentage points. The proposed districts remain manageable in geographic size and respect as much as possible historical patterns.

The new population counts and deviations from the Quota in the proposed redistribution plan are shown in Table 15B.

Table 15B – Southernmost Ontario Proposed Electoral Districts

Electoral Districts	Population ‒ 2021	Deviation from Quota ‒ 2022
Chatham-Kent—Leamington—Kingsville	128,045	9.83%
Essex	120,132	3.04%
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong	127,200	9.10%
Windsor—Tecumseh	122,533	5.10%
Windsor West	126,695	8.67%
Average	124,921	7.15%
Range (most populous to least populous)	7,913	6.79 pp

pp = percentage points