Commentaire 62 (22 août 2022) – commentaires et rétroaction

Jordan O'Brien

For many years I have been interested in politics and political structures. I have authored several Wikipedia articles on electoral redistribution processes and in 2012 I submitted to the provincial boundaries commission a detailed proposal on several complete sets of boundaries from which many of the final provincial boundaries were chosen by the commission.

I have prepared this submission for the 2022 federal commission based on my imperfect knowledge of New Brunswick's communities of interest, and while my proposals should work in this regard generally, the commission should be careful to consider the proposals with an eye to potential minor adjustments to address communities of interest broadly, and the new municipal boundaries specifically.

In my opinion, the biggest problems with the current New Brunswick federal electoral boundaries are as follows: the unnecessary splitting of Fredericton, Dieppe and Riverview across two electoral districts; the splitting of bedroom communities of Fredericton across several electoral districts with which they share no communities of interest; and the chronic underpopulation of the Miramichi electoral district.

A boundaries commission can take two general approaches to its work: 1) start with the premise of generally maintaining the current districts making tweaks as necessary to address population growth and decline, or 2) start from scratch developing districts based on municipal or county or other political boundaries. The 1990s federal boundaries commission for New Brunswick was the last to take the second approach and due to 30 years of change it is probably best to take this approach again.

In its preliminary map the commission has taken the first approach and addressed some of the issues I consider to be the biggest problems with the current map, while missing others as well as creating new problems. Most particularly, the new proposed district of Saint John-St. Croix both unnecessarily splits Saint John between two districts and further exacerbates the lack of community of interest for Fredericton-area bedroom communities, some of which would now find themselves in a district with much of Saint John, over an hour away, with Fredericton with which they share many interests minutes away but in a different district.

To draw my proposed set of boundaries, I began with the three major cities and the 15 counties of New Brunswick as a starting point. To my surprise, I found that simply doing this creates districts within the acceptable population variances from the electoral quotient. I made some minor adjustments however from my understanding of communities of interest and to bring the boundaries closer to the electoral quotient. This set of boundaries has districts all within 10 per cent of the electoral quotient, which has the added benefit of reducing the likelihood that any major changes will be required at the next redistribution in the 2030s.

My source for this work is Statistics Canada data from the 2021 census at the county, municipal and parish level. Adjustments would need to be made to account for the new municipal boundaries as well as communities of interest at the sub-municipal/parish level.

Acadie—Bathurst

• Same boundaries as Gloucester County
• Population: 78,256
• Variance from quotient: +0.90pp

This may be an overly simplistic boundary, and communities of interest particularly along the Restigouche County border should be considered.

Miramichi—Kent

• Northumberland County and most of Kent County (all except for Cocagne and Dundas)
• Population: 70,085
• Variance from quotient: -9.64pp

This addresses the chronic population challenge of Miramichi districts that has been problematic for the past three commissions to address, and largely respects the request of the Kent Regional Services Commission to keep its boundaries whole.

Beauséjour

• City of Dieppe, parts of Westmorland County (Beaubassin-Est, Bostford, Cap-Pelé, Dorchester village and parish, Fort Folly First Nation, Memramcook, Port Elgin, Sackville town and parish, Shediac town and parish, Westmorland parish), the Cocagne Rural Community and the Parish of Dundas from Kent County
• Population: 73,251
• Variance from quotient: -5.56pp

Without creating an unnecessarily large electoral district, this orientation should create better representation for Dieppe by ending its split across two districts in which its voice is significantly diminished. This is the same rationale the commission uses in its preliminary report for removing Riverview entirely from the Moncton district.

Moncton

• City of Moncton
• Population: 79,470
• Variance from quotient: +2.46pp

This respects a request from the municipal council of Moncton as well as creates a district that nearly perfectly hits the electoral quotient. It ends the unfortunate present situation where Riverview and Dieppe are unnecessarily split across two districts.

Albert—Petitcodiac—Kings

• Albert County, parts of Westmorland County (Moncton parish, Petitcodiac, Salisbury village and parish) and parts of Kings County (Cardwell, Greenwich, Hammond, Havelock, Kars, Norton village and parish, Springfield, Studholm, Sussex Corner, Sussex town and parish, Upham, Waterford)
• Population: 71,138
• Variance from quotient: -8.28pp

This is a very similar district to what the commission proposes in its preliminary report.

I propose a name which may be better suited. As previous commissions have heard, there is a sentimental connection to the name Fundy Royal, however as this district has evolved over the years that name makes less and less sense. First, it does not acknowledge the significant portions of Westmorland County that are included in the district; and second, Royal is a shorthand for Kings and Queens, and the district no longer contains much of Queens County (or any it at all under this proposal). Ironically, the Charlotte-Kings district proposed herein which includes most of the Fundy Coast and Kings County as well as a portion of Queens County would be better suited for the name Fundy Royal if not for its historic association with this region.The proposed name of Albert-Petitcodiac-Kings acknowledges all parts of the riding and prevents ambiguation with the other districts that include parts of Kings, Queens and the Fundy region.

Charlotte—Kings

• Charlotte County, parts of Kings County (Grand Bay-Westfield, Hampton town and parish, Kingston, Quispamsis, Rothesay parish, Westfield), St. John County (except City of Saint John), Petersville from Queens County
• Population: 70,145
• Variance from quotient: -9.56pp

The New Brunswick Southwest district has been struggling with population and as a result has continued to expand north and east in recent redistributions. The result is a district that lacks a clear community of interest. The proposed solution of splitting the city of Saint John to supplement the population of the district exacerbates rather than corrects the problem.

Charlotte County has a close association with the City of Saint John and its environs, as has Kings County, particularly is western portions. This district unites together areas who have a clear community of interest: rural and suburban areas whose residents regularly commute to Saint John for work, healthcare and services.

Saint John—Rothesay

• City of Saint John, Town of Rothesay
• Population: 81,872
• Variance from quotient: +5.56

Without needing to split Saint John to supplement the population of its western neighbour, this district with a clear community of interest can remain unchanged.

Fredericton—Oromocto

• City of Fredericton, Town of Oromocto, Parish of Lincoln
• Population: 85,151
• Variance from quotient: +9.79pp

These boundaries are largely similar to what the commission proposed in its preliminary report.

Central New Brunswick

• Carleton County, York County (except City of Fredericton), Sudbury County (except Town of Oromocto and Parish of Lincoln), Queens County (except Petersville)
• Population: 84,622
• Variance from quotient: +9.10pp

This orientation though not perfect, does a far better job representing the communities of interest around Fredericton. Rather than including Hanwell, Maugerville and Rusagonish in three separate districts while the city of Fredericton resides in a fourth, this unites them together in a district that surrounds the city which is the service centre for them all. While northern parts of Carleton County are a bit further removed from the capital city, this orientation is more compact and more orderly than the alternatives.

Madawaska—Restigouche—Victoria

• Madawaska County, Restigouche County, Victoria County
• Population: 81,615
• Variance from quotient: +5.23pp

From the 1960s through the 1990s, Madawaska and Victoria were in the same electoral district. Grand Falls, which straddles the line of these two counties, is a service and shopping centre for the rest of Victoria County and shares close community ties with them. Restigouche and Victoria County (in particular St-Quentin and Plaster Rock) share stewardship of Mt. Carleton provincial park and both include significant Anglophone and Francophone regions