Commentaire 25 – commentaires et rétroaction

Terrence P. Miller

Terrence P Miller x xxxxxxx xxxxx Brampton Ontario xxx xxx XXXXXXXXXX@XXXXXX.com October 13 2022

Thank you for your perseverance in hearing from the public on the proposed redistribution of ridings in Brampton. I don't oppose redistribution or the addition of a sixth riding for Brampton but I do have issues with the boundaries you have chosen in your initial report.

Tonight, I will discuss my objection to those boundaries by raising the following five concerns:

1. Integrity of Brampton's boundaries
2. Brampton growth 1974-2040
3. Representation of urban settings
4. Synchronization of federal and provincial ridings
5. Numerical gerrymandering

Brampton as you know is the 9th largest city in Canada and the 4th largest city in the Ontario. In 2021, Census Canada reported Brmapton's population at 665,000. During the Covid pandemic Brampton grew at a rate on average 1.5% but in other times that growth has been from 3% to double digits.

As you know Brampton's boundaries were set by the Region of Peel Act 1974 as amended. The boundaries were designed based on several reports from the County of Peel and amended by provincial statute. Those boundaries fit the South Peel Scheme for water and sewer and provincial population predictions.

Integrity of Brampton's boundaries

In 1974, the City of Brampton boundaries were based on urban population centers with large rural lands available for growth. The Toronto Centered Plan proposed increased densities for South Peel and this was confirmed in provincial planning documents that predicted Brampton as a centre for 950,000 people. Brampton is programmed for big growth.

The notion that Brampton's boundaries would change has never been part of provincial or municipal plans except for the hamlet of Snelgrove which was incorporated into the City of Brampton.

Green fields are still available in Brampton and are not used up. Growth is very much a part of Brampton's ongoing plan. Brampton boundaries are absorbing that growth and defining neighbourhoods and communities within the Brampton municipal boundary. Brampton will continue to grow into those green fields until it reaches the provicnial target of 950,000 in 2041.

Along with that growth is intensification of the neighbourhoods that exist today. That intensification will increase population growth strikingly by 2031. It includes remaking old neighourhoods into high rise communities, especially in the four corners district where PAMA exists today. This transformation includes infrastructure changes that are underway today. Brampton's population has increased by 180% over the past 30 years and 25% ove the past 10 years.

It is my belief that population growth, intensification and the remaking of old neighourhoods including the maturation of housing types in Brampton warrant the six ridings within the city's borders and that the city could easily absorb all six of those ridings and maybe more.

Growth

In 1974 the city of Brampton came into being… population 91,842. In 2022 Brampton's population has grown to 665,540 all in the space of 48 years. Growth has been spectacular with spurts of 13% growth periods. In 2021 the city of Brampton reported about 8000 outstanding housing permits.

Housing policy has changed and the provincial government has pressed for more housing in parts of Ontario that can easily absorb that increase. Brampton is one of those areas in the GTA and as housing costs are driven down more building permits will be issued for all types of housing. It is not unreasonable to predict 3% as a minimum growth percentage for 2023 and up to 6% growth annually for the next three years.

Notwithstanding the official growth numbers, the unofficial numbers of people who reside in Brampton in rooming homes or in basement apartments is unknown although the numbers of these dwellings is estimated to be close to 8000. Brampton may very well have exceeded the 700,000 mark today.

Brampton represents 45% of Peel's population. The city of Brampton predicts that is population will be 738,000 by 2031 but that number may be very conservative considering the provincial governments new mandate in housing. Major development projects in North West Brampton could easily add 20,000 people within a two to five year frame work. Other housing projects in the South West and the North East including high rise will add population to the 800,000 mark with the ten year span to 2031. Six ridings within Brampton's boundaries would not be unusual

Urban settings

One can easily see that Brampton is an urban municipality, it is contiguous with Mississauga and Etobicoke and has many of the same models of urban life. Brampton shares Regional Police with Mississauga and regional transit including major roadways like the 410, 407 401 highways. Brampton also shares major health facilities with Etobicoke through the Osier Health system. This conurbation with Etobicoke and Mississauga marks urban settings with common purpose in delivering city and regional services to an urban population.

Brampton does not have the same similarity with Caledon. Caledon has a different police force and fewer population situated in selected portions of that community. Caledon describes itself as a combination of rural urban life style. While some Caledon residents may experience urban issues, their municipality has chosen to remain a largely rural community so only a portion of their community share water and sewer and roadways with the urban part of Peel.

Brampton's on the other hand is urban oriented. The city of Brampton has 82,707 businesses within the boundaries of the city. There are well over 100 languages spoken in homes in Brampton and many people here go to work either in Brampton or other urban centers.The median age is 36 and Brampton has become a centre for immigrant settlement where the median salary is 97,290.

Brampton is a compact community that can easily accommodate 6 ridings within its present boundaries. It is, like Mississauga and Etobicoke, an urban entity

Synchronization of provincial and federal ridings

Democratic governments recognize that the ratio of population to elected members be a number that makes sense so that individual citizens, if they chose, can easily have access to their elected representative. This principle is well understood by the people of Canada and the ratio of 1:121,891 seems to work both provincially and federally.

Today the provincial and federal boundaries are the same and all the ridings within Brampton are contained within Brampton's boundaries. What you recommend is different and that poses problems for synchronization of voting and understanding of issues that arise. Those issues may have implications federally and provincially.

Having different electoral boundaries may cause voter anxiety and local government confusion. That anxiety and confusion may become evident if taxpayers and local government are unsure if the matters they have an interest can be represented by a joint effort of federal and provincial elected officials, when those federal and provincial elected representatives represent different interests in Parliament and the Legislature

If the federal and provincial ridings in Brampton don't match, voters may wonder why there is that disconnect. Boundary synchronization wasn't one of the obvious matters that was dealt with in an efficacious manner.

Numerical gerrymandering

No doubt ridings can be constructed by numbers alone without paying much attention to other factors. That concept is numerical gerrymandering and it is a construct fixing the ratio to an area without much attention to the community.

A better way to fix boundaries is to look at communities of like interest within municipal boundaries, growth within those boundaries and the common values folks that live within those boundaries share each and every day.

The boundaries you have chosen make no sense to those of us that have watched Brampton grow over the past fifty years. We know that Brampton will grow to 950,000 people by 2041 and indeed by 2031 we expect Brampton to be at 800,000 people, We know this because green fields exist today and the provincial government's new policies to ensure growth, intensification and land development will develop those lands and change densities to ensure that Brampton reaches its target of 950,00 people by 2041.

No doubt the federal electoral commission will be back in ten years' time looking for redistribution again and putting forward lines on a map that outline a 7th or 8th riding for Brampton. I believe that it is more than evident that Brampton can easily absorb a six riding within its present boundaries and I ask you to consider the information you have heard tonight and go back to the drawing boards and redraft the sixth riding to carve out a new riding within the boundaries of the city of Brampton.

THANK YOU