Commentaire 17 – commentaires et rétroaction

Dominic DiFruscio

RE: Redistribution of Niagara Centre and Impact on the City of Thorold

Dear Members of the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario:

Thank you for the opportunity to provide a submission on the August 19, 2022 proposal for federal electoral districts. I would also like to thank all Commission members and staff for your commitment and service in contributing to this important matter.

Overview and Impact on the City of Thorold

My submission is on the impact of the Commission's proposal on my hometown of the City of Thorold in the Regional Municipality of Niagara. For almost two decades, the City of Thorold has been included in its entirety in the federal electoral district of Niagara Centre or its predecessor riding of Welland. The Commission's proposal would abolish the electoral district of Niagara Centre and divide the City of Thorold into the proposed electoral districts of Niagara West and Niagara South. In my respectful opinion, the City of Thorold should not be divided and should be included in its entirety in an electoral district along the Welland Canal.

I describe below the history, geography and community of interest of the City of Thorold, followed by considerations applicable to the greater Niagara region. This is a non-partisan matter, independent from government, that affects how we as citizens are represented in Parliament. I am writing in a personal capacity and views are my own.

Electoral Quota and Additional Factors

In proposing electoral district boundaries, the federal Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act requires the Commission to consider the electoral quota for the province, which is 116,590 in 2022. This helps to ensure that electoral districts are of similar population size and that each citizen's vote is relatively equal. The importance of electoral district population size has been recognized by the Supreme Court of Canada. According to the Supreme Court, "relative parity of voting power" is the first condition of "effective representation" (Reference Re Prov. Electoral Boundaries (Sask), [1991] 2 SCR 158).

However, the Supreme Court also recognized that "effective representation often cannot be achieved without taking into account countervailing factors." In this regard, the Supreme Court held that additional factors may be required to ensure effective representation of different interests, including, but not limited to, "geography, community history, community interests and minority representation".

Parliament has similarly recognized the importance of additional factors to be considered by the Commission. The Commission is specifically required to consider, "the community of interest or community of identity in or the historical pattern of an electoral district in the province, and a manageable geographic size for districts in sparsely populated, rural or northern regions of the province." In considering these additional factors, the legislation allows the Commission to depart within 25 percent more or less than the electoral quota. The legislation also permits the Commission to exceed 25 percent in "circumstances viewed by the commission as being extraordinary".

In my respectful view, the Commission's proposal may have effects on the City of Thorold that are disproportionate to the goal of ensuring that electoral district populations correspond closely to the electoral quota. In fact, maintaining the existing boundaries of the Niagara Centre electoral district would result in a riding population of within 2.76 percent of the quota. Instead, due to variances in populations in adjacent electoral districts, the Commission's proposal would divide the City of Thorold and may have the unintended effect of diminishing the community's voice in representation. History, geography and community of interest all justify including the City of Thorold in its entirety in an electoral district along the Welland Canal.

History, Geography and Community of Interest of the City of Thorold

Community History and Identity

Contrary to the Commission's proposal, the historical pattern of electoral districts of which Thorold has been a part has generally been consistent since Confederation. In establishing Canada's first post-Confederation electoral districts, the Constitution Act, 1867 provided for Thorold to be included in the County of Welland electoral district. With the exception of the period between 1966 and 1976, the communities of Thorold and Welland have always been included in the same electoral district. The southern portion of the City of St. Catharines has also been included with Thorold since 1966 and with both Thorold and Welland since 1976. The City of Port Colborne was included in the riding in 2004. In 2004, on the 175th anniversary of the first Welland Canal, the Member of Parliament for the then Welland riding stated in the House of Commons, "The Welland Canal has helped shape the geographic, cultural, and economic landscape of Niagara while bringing much growth in commerce for Canada" (Canada, House of Commons Debates (Hansard), November 30, 2004). Indeed, these communities were established due to the construction of the Welland Canal and expanded due to the associated industrial development and economic growth.

The importance of the Welland Canal to the community identity of Thorold, both historically and today, cannot be underestimated. On a personal note, my grandfather settled in Thorold in the early twentieth century to work as a labourer in building the present Welland Canal. My father also lived in the community for his entire life and worked for 40 years as a longshoreman at a local paper mill, unloading lumber and loading industrial paper and newsprint on ships for transportation on the Welland Canal. Today, some local businesses in Thorold have branded themselves with the motto "Canal City". An image of a ship appears on the city's flag and the city's motto is "Where Ships Climb the Mountain", in reference to the twin flight locks located in the city that traverse the Niagara Escarpment. The local amateur baseball team is even named the "Anchors" and ships can be seen passing through the canal from the home baseball field. I spent my childhood watching ships with my family at different canal locks both in Thorold and other canal communities. As an adult, I also visit, drive along and watch ships in the Welland Canal with my spouse and daughter. The Welland Canal is important to Thorold, the surrounding communities and to me personally.

History demonstrates that the communities along the Welland Canal should be grouped to form a federal electoral district. The entire City of Thorold should be included as part of that district. While the riding name has changed over the years (e.g., Welland, Welland—St. Catharines—Thorold, Niagara Centre), Thorold has always been included with other canal communities since Confederation. The Commission's proposal to separate a portion of the City of Thorold from the Welland Canal community and include it in the proposed Niagara West electoral district would represent an unprecedented exception to the historical pattern of federal electoral districts of which Thorold has been a part.

Geography and Population

The City of Thorold should remain part of a centrally located riding in the Regional Municipality of Niagara. The city's municipal limits are located in the geographical centre and the city is the political centre of Niagara as the seat of regional government. Thorold straddles the Welland Canal. The city is also adjacent to other urban population centres, namely the cities of St. Catharines, Welland and Niagara Falls.

While some parts of the City of Thorold may be characterized as rural areas, the majority of residents live in high density urban and residential areas of the city. According to the 2021 Census of Population, approximately 15,500 people, or 65 percent of 23,800 residents, live in the dense urban portion of Thorold located generally north and northeast of Lake Gibson and contiguous with the City of St. Catharines (aggregate dissemination area 35260027). The population density of this area is almost 1,700 persons per square kilometre and far exceeds that of the existing Niagara West riding (98.1 persons per square kilometre). Another portion of Thorold with a significant population is situated east of the Welland Canal (census tract 5390102.02) and includes the community of Thorold South. Approximately 4,500 people, or almost 20 percent of residents, live east of the Welland Canal. This portion of the city has experienced recent real estate development and significant population growth since the previous census (28 percent). This growth has contributed to Thorold being the eighth fastest growing city in Canada and fourth fastest growing city in Ontario in 2021 (Statistics Canada, "Canada's fastest growing and decreasing municipalities from 2016 to 2021", February 9, 2022).

The geography of the proposed Niagara West electoral district is very different from Thorold. This proposed electoral district is a vast rural region with low population density and large distances between communities. The proposed riding would stretch from the municipal limits of Thorold, east of the Welland Canal and adjacent to Niagara Falls, south westwards beyond the Niagara region to include the unincorporated community of Dunnville and other communities of Haldimand County along Lake Erie approximately 60 kilometres away. Thorold would be the largest community in the proposed Niagara West electoral district, but urban Thorold residents would constitute only 13 percent of its population. The historical and geographic significance of the Welland Canal is also not shared to the same extent by other communities in the proposed Niagara West electoral district.

Community of Interest

In determining electoral district boundaries, the legislation requires the Commission to consider the "community of interest". In fact, the previous electoral boundaries commission stated in its final report that it, "received persuasive submissions that the Cities of Port Colborne, Welland and Thorold all had a community of interest linked to the Welland Canal, thus calling for an electoral district with a north– south axis" (Canada, Report of the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for the Province of Ontario 2012, February 14, 2013). The unique historical and geographical context of Thorold described above, coupled with present economic, social and minority representation considerations, continue to demonstrate a community of interest with other Welland Canal communities.

In addition to its historical significance, the Welland Canal remains of key importance to Thorold and surrounding communities. Almost $8 billion of goods were transported through the Welland Canal in 2017 (Niagara Economic Development, "Economic Trade Corridor"
https://niagaracanada.com/niagara-advantage/economic-trade-corridor). In the last five years, industrial development associated with the Welland Canal has contributed to growth in the region (Adam Bisby, "All roads (and canals) lead to a booming Welland", Globe and Mail, August 26, 2019). Additionally, in September 2020, the mayors of Thorold, Welland and Port Colborne, as well as the federal Member of Parliament representing Niagara Centre, came together to sign a Memorandum of Understanding between the cities and the Hamilton-Oshawa Port Authority to develop three "multimodal industrial hubs" along the Welland Canal (Hamilton-Oshawa Port Authority, "HOPA Ports, Niagara Municipalities sign MOU to pursue surplus Canal lands" News Release, September 25, 2020). The first of these hubs was established in Thorold on the eastern side of the Welland Canal on the site of the former paper mill where my father dedicated his career (Ludvig Drevfjall, "Thorold industry hub the start of a Niagara trade corridor, officials say" Thorold Today, December 4, 2020). The Thorold hub is situated at the intersection of marine, rail and road networks for the transportation of goods both within Canada and internationally. It is also adjacent to the eastern portion of Thorold that has experienced rapid population and real estate growth. The creation of this hub is representative of the evolution of role of the Welland Canal in the global economy. It also demonstrates the evolution and continuity of the community of interest along the Welland Canal and Thorold's key part in this community.

Other economic considerations demonstrate a community of interest among Thorold and other Welland Canal communities. While industrial development remains important, a large portion of Thorold residents work in the services sector. According to the 2016 Census, the latest year for which this information is available, the three largest categories of labour participation for Thorold residents were retail trade (13 percent), health care and social assistance (13 percent) and accommodation and food services (12 percent). Less than two percent of Thorold residents worked in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting. These figures are similar to those of St. Catharines, Welland and Port Colborne. These similarities are likely due to the similar urban and social settings of these communities.

The labour profile of other communities in the proposed Niagara West electoral district appears to be different. According to the 2021 Census of Agriculture, there were over 10 times the number of farms in the existing Niagara West electoral district (1070 farms) than the existing Niagara Centre electoral district (107 farms). In 2016, almost four times the number of residents of the existing Niagara West electoral district (5.7 percent) worked in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting than residents of the existing Niagara Centre electoral district (1.5 percent). These figures demonstrate that Thorold and western Niagara have very different interests.

Given the rapid population growth along the Welland Canal, access to community services and housing remain key issues for residents of Thorold. In relative terms, these issues may not be as prevalent in rural areas in the proposed Niagara West electoral district, which have not experienced the population growth experienced in Thorold.

Minority Representation

The cultural and linguistic profile of a geographic area may also demonstrate a community of interest. According to the Supreme Court, factors including "minority representation may need to be taken into account to ensure that our legislative assemblies effectively represent the diversity of our social mosaic." The Federal Court similarly recognized minority representation as being important for effective representation. According to the Federal Court:

"a minority group's fear that it will not be adequately represented by its member of Parliament [is] not without basis; the opposite is in fact true, because the reality in a democracy is that an elected representative who is faced with the conflicting interests of the majority and a minority will often have to choose to represent the interests of the majority" (Raîche v. Canada (Attorney General), 2004 FC 679).

There appear to be greater demographic similarities between Thorold and other Welland Canal communities. According to the 2021 Census, 7.8 percent of Thorold residents, 8.1 percent of St. Catharines residents and 5.7 percent of Welland residents spoke most often a language other than English at home. French was the mother tongue of 7 percent of Welland residents in 2021. In contrast, approximately 3 percent of residents of the existing electoral district of Niagara West most often spoke a language other than English at home in 2021.

Almost one in five residents of Thorold (18.7 percent) identified as being a member of a visible minority group in 2021. This figure is closer in similarity to that of St. Catharines (16.5 percent) than to Welland (8.7 percent) and Port Colborne (2.8 percent). However, the proportion of residents of the existing

Niagara West electoral district that identified as being a member of a visible minority group (6.6 percent) was about half that of the existing Niagara Centre electoral district (11.9 percent) and about a third of that of Thorold. On balance, it appears that the cultural and linguistic profile of Thorold has greater similarities to Welland Canal communities than other communities in the proposed Niagara West electoral district.

Effective Representation for the Regional Municipality of Niagara

While the focus of my submission has been on the particular impacts of the Commission's proposal on the City of Thorold, it is important to acknowledge that a change in electoral district boundaries in any one district could have a cascading effect across the region and province. Indeed, the existing Niagara Centre electoral district is being redistributed due to changes in population in adjacent electoral districts. However, I would respectfully submit that maintaining existing electoral district boundaries in the Regional Municipality of Niagara would maintain the right to effective representation for the region's citizens. As recognized by the Supreme Court, the right to vote in Canada "is not equality of voting power [...] but the right to 'effective representation'". The region is currently divided into four electoral districts and had a total population of 477,941 in 2021. Should the Commission maintain four electoral districts for the Niagara region, the region as a whole would remain within 2.5 percent of the electoral quota (on average 119,485 residents per district). This is not a situation where variations in the electoral district populations of Niagara would result in less representation, such as if the region lost a seat in Parliament. Rather, maintaining the existing electoral district boundaries would provide effective representation insofar as they respect the communities of interest of the Niagara region.

Should the Commission decide to not maintain the status quo, the City of Thorold should in some way be kept together and included with other central and canal-adjacent communities. A potential alternative to the Commission's proposal could be to include the entire City of Thorold as part of the Commission's proposed Niagara South electoral district. Depending on the particular communities included in this potential riding, it could be named Niagara Centre or Niagara South Centre as was once proposed by a former Member of Parliament (Canada, Bill C-323, An Act to change the name of the electoral district of Welland, 38th Parl, 1st Sess, 2005 (first reading February 7, 2005)). According to the 2021 Census, an electoral district composed of the cities of Thorold, Welland and Port Colborne, and communities of the Town of Fort Erie to the extent necessary, would have a population of up to 132,500, which would be greater than the quota by 15,910 people or 13.7 percent. Nevertheless, the communities of Fort Erie arguably have more in common with other communities along the Niagara River or Lake Erie than with Thorold and Welland. The southern portion of St. Catharines should also be included as part of this riding due to its community of interest with Thorold and Welland for almost 50 years. Not including south St. Catharines with Thorold and Welland would represent a major change to the historical pattern of electoral districts. Thus, while this approach offers a potential alternative, it could still result in dividing communities of interest and in a larger riding population. The status quo of Niagara Centre composed of south St. Catharines, Thorold, Welland and Port Colborne would therefore best preserve the community of interest along the Welland Canal.

As stated by the Supreme Court, while relative voter parity is of "prime importance", to "insist on [it] might deprive citizens with distinct interests of an effective voice". In this regard, the Commission's proposal, which achieves almost absolute voter parity in Niagara region electoral districts, could have the unintended and disproportionate effect of hindering the voices of the citizens of Niagara including those of the City of Thorold. In my humble opinion, ensuring that all citizens have an effective voice, regardless of where they live, is of primordial importance in our democracy.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I would respectfully submit that the Commission reconsider its approach to the proposed electoral district boundaries in the Regional Municipality of Niagara to give further consideration to history, geography and community of interest, particularly with respect to my hometown of the City of Thorold. The Commission's proposal could have the disproportionate effect of limiting the voice of the citizens of Thorold. Maintaining the existing boundaries would respect the communities of interest. At minimum, history, geography and community of interest justify including the entire City of Thorold as part of an electoral district along the Welland Canal.

Regardless of the Commission's ultimate decision, I have appreciated the opportunity to participate in this process. I would again like to thank all Commission members and staff for considering my submission and contributing to this important task in our democracy.

Yours sincerely,

Dominic DiFruscio, B.C.L., LL.B.