Commentaire 13 (10 mai 2022) – commentaires et rétroaction

James McAllister

Brief to the Federal Electoral Districts Redistribution 2022 Commission for Manitoba

This brief deals mainly with one electoral district, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, although it must, of necessity, also deal with neighbouring electoral districts which will be affected by any changes to Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. It is presented to the Commission in the hope that it may alter the Commission's initial proposals, rather than simply reacting to those proposals.

It is the argument of this brief that the southern boundary of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski should be altered such that this electoral district should not include any territory south of the 53^rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N. There are a number of reasons for this change in the boundaries of this electoral district and they will be elucidated in the following paragraphs.

The Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district is unique within Manitoba and should not be treated the same as other electoral districts in the province. As currently constituted it includes more than three quarters of the land mass of Manitoba. This makes representation in Ottawa problematic to an extreme for anyone elected as an MP from this electoral district.

These problems of representation are accentuated by the large Indigenous population in Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district and the extra effort on the part of the federal government that should be extended to meet the needs of Indigenous peoples.

Geography

The Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district, as currently constituted, included 81,258 people at the time of the 2021 census of Canada. That was a decline of 6.5 per cent from the 2016 census, when the electoral district included 86,908 people. As of the 2021 census, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski included 6.05 per cent of the population of Manitoba.

The Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district, as currently constituted, includes 420,975 square miles of land mass, 77.9 per cent of the total land area of the entire province of Manitoba, 540,310 square miles. The electoral district extends as far north as Nunavut and Hudson Bay, as far west as Saskatchewan and as far east as the Ontario border and southeastern Manitoba, a hundred kilometres or so from Winnipeg.

In other words, any Member of Parliament elected to represent Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district must deal with issues that cover more than three quarters of the total territory of Manitoba, with less than one quarter of Manitoba being represented by the 13 other MPs.

In addition, a large percentage of the population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski is of Indigenous origin. The Commission has already recognized that any redistribution, in Manitoba, must involve protecting the constitutional rights of the Indigenous communities (sections 25 and 35 of the Charter). Many of the electoral district's Indian Reserves north of the 53^rd parallel are home to thousands of people. According to the 2021 census, just among those reserves with more than a thousand people each:

• Chemawawin 2 includes 1,264 people
• Cross Lake 19 includes 1,865 people
• Cross Lake 19A includes 2,045 people
• Garden Hill First Nation 3,054
• God's Lake 23 includes 1,520
• Nelson House 2,397
• Norway House 17 includes 5,390 residents
• Split Lake 171 includes 2,232 residents
• St. Theresa Point 3,417 people
• Wasagamack 2,088 residents.

The Commission and its staff also should take extra care and pay attention to the serious problem of under-reporting on reserves. This under-reporting will seriously compromise the Commission's work if estimates are not incorporated into its recommendations.

Complete data on Aboriginal peoples is not currently available from the 2021 census and Statistics Canada does not plan to release further information on First Nations people, Metis and Inuit until September 21, 2022. However, as shown in the following table, among the towns and cities of northern Manitoba, as of the 2016 census, Indigenous peoples were a majority of the population in Churchill, Leaf Rapids and Lynn Lake and a sizable share of the total in Flin Flon, Gillam, Snow Lake, The Pas and Thompson. The ratio of Aboriginal to Non-Aboriginal may change significantly in favour of the former when the results of the 2021 census are available.

Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Populations in Cities and Towns in Northern Manitoba, 2016

	Aboriginal	Non-Aboriginal
Churchill	750	355
Flin Flon	1,050	3,860
Gillam	575	695
Leaf Rapids	355	95
Lynn Lake	230	150
Snow Lake	135	705
The Pas	2,460	2,690
Thompson	5,870	7,605

History

The Indigenous peoples living in what is now included in the Churchill-Keewatinook Aski electoral district were among the first to come into contact with European explorers and settlers in the 17^th century. However, even among academics and policy analysts, the North has often been ignored while focusing on the small, Winnipeg-centred province of Manitoba that was admitted to Confederation in 1870 and that had its boundaries established in 1876. It did not come close to northern Manitoba but was limited to what is now southeastern Manitoba. The boundaries of the province were enlarged in 1881, but set the 53^rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N. as the new northern boundary of Manitoba.

It was only in 1912 that the boundaries of Manitoba were changed to include northern Manitoba while the boundaries of Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba all were extended north to Hudson's Bay and the Hudson Strait. Manitoba's northern boundary was moved northward to the 60^th parallel of latitude and northeastward to the shores of Hudson's Bay.^{footnote 1} This was follow-up to the creation of the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan in 1905 with northern boundaries of both provinces set at 60 degrees north.

This area between the 53^rd parallel and the 60^th parallel has been referred to as New Manitoba although, as W.L. Morton has pointed out from the point of view of settlers to Manitoba, New Manitoba, which in a sense was the oldest Manitoba, was incorporated into the province on May 15, 1912, forty-two years after that May 12 which had seen the Manitoba Act become law.^{footnote 2}

It appears that, strictly in terms of political representation, the people who live north of the 53^rd parallel would have been better off if New Manitoba or North Manitoba had been set aside as a separate territory, instead of having been included as part of the province of Manitoba. As a territory, it would have been guaranteed representation by one MP and one Senator, rather than just part of an MP.

Precedents

Northern regional health authority (northern health region)

The Manitoba government has long recognized the North as a separate region for public health purposes. This came to the fore during the COVID-19 pandemic when public information for the region was released on a regular basis.

The Northern Regional Health Authority (Northern Health Region) was created in May 2012. The Northern Health Region is geographically the largest of the five RHAs in the province of Manitoba. Within the Region there are:

• 2 cities (Thompson and Flin Flon)
• 6 towns (The Pas, Gillam, Grand Rapids, Leaf Rapids, Lynn Lake, Snow Lake)
• 1 RM (Kelsey)
• 1 LGD (Mystery Lake)
• Multiple hamlets and cottage settlements making up unorganized territories
• 26 First Nations communities
• 16 Northern Affairs Communities.

The boundaries of the Northern Health region are consistent with those being recommended for the electoral district of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski.

Other provinces and territories

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski is perhaps the most problematic of all the electoral districts under review by the Manitoba Commission.

Such has not been the approach of commissions in other provinces. For example, in the neighbouring province of Saskatchewan, a similar riding – Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River – has a population of 71,488, far less than the current boundaries for Churchill-Keewatinook Aski in Manitoba.

In the neighbouring province of Ontario, the previous federal Commission concluded that, instead of giving northern Ontario eight ridings, as the region's population would dictate, given the vast region, the Commission believes that a minimum of 10 electoral districts is required in order for citizens of Northern Ontario to have effective representation. (page 10 of the Ontario Proposal).

More specifically, in the northern Ontario riding of Kenora, it is the Commission's decision that, given the geographic size and relatively sparse population of the electoral district of Kenora, there are reasonable grounds to apply the extraordinary circumstances provision of the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act to that electoral district. (page 11 of the Proposal). The Ontario Commission proposed that the riding of Kenora have a population below the provincial average and it has a current population of 64,261 according to the 2021 census.

In yet another example, the Commission for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador drew the boundaries of the riding of Labrador such that it has a population of 26,655, far below the provincial quota.

And finally, it should be noted that each of the northern Canadian territories has a population that is a fraction of the total population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. The population of the Yukon, 40,232, the Northwest territories, 41,070, and Nunavut, 36,858, each are far below that of the present Churchill-Keewatinook Aski district. In fact, the population of any two of the territories is about the same as that of Manitoba's most northern riding.

Impact on other electoral districts

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski borders on three other electoral districts within Manitoba, as well as electoral districts in Ontario, Saskatchewan and Nunavut. No other electoral district in Manitoba, as currently constituted, borders on two provinces or a territory.

The impact on the Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa electoral district will be negligible. Its northern boundary is already the 53^rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N. This would not change with the implementation of these proposals.

The impact on Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman would be more significant with its northern boundary becoming the 53^rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N, at least on the west side of Lake Winnipeg. It would be up to the Commission to determine what would happen to the territory on the east side of Lake Winnipeg.

The Commission also may wish to alter the boundaries of Provencher electoral district, perhaps to include all of the territory on the east side of Lake Winnipeg south of the 53^rd parallel of latitude, i.e. 53°00'N. There is historical precedent for this change. This might mean that the Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman electoral district is renamed Selkirk-Interlake while the Provencher electoral district is renamed Provencher-Eastman.

Conclusion

In summary, the Commission is urged to recognize the extraordinary circumstances of the North and reduce the geographic size and population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. Our preference would be to use the 53°00'N parallel as the southern border of the electoral district. In fact, our preference would be to lock in the 53^rd parallel as the southern boundary of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski in perpetuity for future redistributions unless on some future occasion the population of that electoral district exceeds the provincial quotient.

It is noted that in every province no electoral district is permitted to have a population smaller than 75 per cent of the quotient or greater than 125 per cent of the quotient, although in extraordinary circumstances a commission may exceed these limits. Previous commissions in Manitoba have slavishly attempted to reduce these variances to 95 per cent and 105 per cent and this has harmed the citizens of northern Manitoba. This may have been acceptable in Winnipeg or even southern Manitoba, but it is not acceptable in the sparsely populated north.

If the Commission does not recognize the extraordinary circumstances of northern Manitoba and does not see fit to recognize the geographic and historic precedents as well as those set by other provinces, it would be reasonable to recommend that Churchill-Keewatinook Aski's area and population be reduced so as to take it well below the provincial quota and, perhaps, to 25 per cent below that provincial quota.

With Manitoba's population of 1,383,765 as of the most recent census spread among 14 electoral districts, the average riding should have a population of roughly 98,840 people. The population of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski should not significantly exceed 75 per cent of the provincial quotient - 74,130 people, significantly less than at present.

Footnotes

^{Return to footnote 1} Canada. Manitoba Boundaries Extension Act, 1912

^{Return to footnote 2} W.L. Morton. Manitoba: A History (Second Edition), University of Toronto Press, 1967. P. 327.